The President, Mrs Mary McAleese, enjoys an enviable level of support from the electorate as her first seven-year term in Áras an Uachtaráin draws to a close. It will be difficult, indeed nigh impossible, to beat her in a presidential election later this year.
Yet, voters are almost evenly divided on the desire to have a contest.
The main findings of The Irish Times/TNSmrbi opinion poll, published in today's editions, present something of a conundrum for the Labour Party. The leader, Mr Pat Rabbitte, has stated that there should be a contest. The party's president, Mr Michael D Higgins, has unofficially launched his own candidature. The party position, however, is that nominating Mr Higgins as the Labour candidate is unfinished business, to be addressed after the really important local and European elections.
President McAleese commands a popularity rating of 88 per cent among voters within nine months of a possible election. She wins majority support under all headings: by region, age group, class and party allegiance. Only seven per cent cent are dissatisfied with her performance. Her ratings have been consistently over 80 per cent since she became head of state.
It is hardly surprising then that Mrs McAleese would be hard to beat in any contest. What will create a political stir, however, is the magnitude of the defeat which she could inflict on Mr Higgins if today's poll findings were reflected in an autumn election result . In the event of a presidential election, three-quarters of voters, again with huge majorities across all parties, would give their first preference vote to Mrs McAleese. Some 69 per cent of Labour voters would support her. Some 10 per cent of the national electorate would vote for Mr Higgins. And in a contest between the incumbent and the chairman of the Labour Party, only 15 per cent hold no opinion at this stage.
Despite President McAleese's strong position, however, a substantial minority of voters agree with the Labour view that there should be a presidential election. Voters are equally divided - 46 per cent for an election, 47 per cent against - on the issue. There may be some ambiguity in that answer, however, since respondents were not asked if there should be an election if Mrs McAleese nominates herself for a second term.
For all of that, today's poll findings will add to the embarrassment of the Opposition parties as they devise their strategy on the presidency. The Fine Gael leader, Mr Enda Kenny, may be wise to avoid a contest. Mr Rabbitte may think again. But there is no replacement for the validation of voters to refresh a mandate.