Blair makes judgment call to flush out definitive responses from Adams and Paisley The DUP is talking tough but is the party really in a position ultimately to block a role for the Executive in policing? asks Gerry Moriarty, Northern Editor
There was a strong sense of déjà vu yesterday, a harkening back to David Trimble in 1999 when he jumped first to allow powersharing at Stormont and invited Gerry Adams to jump next on decommissioning - which was too long coming to save the former first minister.
This time Mr Adams is being asked to jump first on policing and the prospective first minister, the Rev Ian Paisley, may then or may not jump next in agreeing to a May 2008 date for devolving policing and justice powers to the Northern Executive.
Yesterday was a day of Jesuitical manoeuvring and at the end of it Mr Adams decided to buy some time by putting back his next move to next week when Sinn Féin will assess what is a rather confused political state.
It was dramatic for the political process but the great Irish public was not holding its breath. It must be heartily sick of what seems an unending, grudging process. Yet, this is old-fashioned, highwire politics, and honestly, a form of endgame is at hand.
A degree in casuistry would have helped yesterday. It was a day of interpretation, a day when senior DUP politicians appeared intent on preventing Sinn Féin signing up to policing, a day when politicians were going around in circles on the issues of delivery and dates.
It came to a head when British prime minister Tony Blair returned a day early to London from his Christmas break in Miami. After long hours of telephone contact with Mr Adams and Dr Paisley, he decided to make his own judgment call to flush out definitive responses.
In essence, Mr Blair's assessment was that Sinn Féin was prepared to properly endorse the PSNI at an ardfheis and that if this happened the DUP was prepared to accept that policing and justice powers should be transferred to the Executive by May next year at the latest.
Mr Blair invited Mr Adams and Dr Paisley to accept his "clear understanding" of the situation. He wanted clarity and without clarity there would be no election on March 7th and, obviously, no devolution by March 26th.
Mr Adams said that, yes, the motion that conditionally will be put forward at the ardfheis was as Mr Blair understood it.
Dr Paisley said upfront delivery was required from Sinn Féin. There would be no weakening of the DUP position. It was up to Sinn Féin to match words with deeds. But he also said - and these were the crucial lines as far as the governments saw it, "I welcome the prime minister's assessment". And he added: "If we are to see further political developments then it must be in the context of full and final delivery from republicans".
The line from London and the Northern Ireland Office in Belfast was that "you can't cherry-pick an assessment". Therefore, Dr Paisley was accepting that with Sinn Féin delivery, the May 2008 St Andrews timetable for devolving policing power was also deliverable.
To other ears it sounded like Dr Paisley saying, "you jump first, Mr Adams".
Mr Adams, too, wondered if the governments were correct in their particular focus. Was Dr Paisley accepting Mr Blair's assessment of the situation the same as agreeing to this assessment? It was all rather laborious. However, nil desperandum, said the governments, this is progress, and it could still work.
But the DUP "noises off", as Mr Adams had it, sounded rather ominous. Out they trooped with their statements before and after the Blair statement. Republicans might want to be patted on the back for potentially moving on policing but they "had shot so many people in the back" that they deserved no kudos, said DUP MEP Jim Allister on Downtown Radio.
The prospect of a Sinn Féin minister sometime in the future being in charge of justice was like "putting Herod in charge of child welfare", said MP Gregory Campbell on BBC Radio Ulster's Talkback programme. And just in case people missed these comments, MPs Nigel Dodds and David Simpson issued statements effectively saying they couldn't foresee a date when policing responsibility could be devolved to an Executive, let alone when a Sinn Féin politician might hold the post.
Such stances are curious. View it all as a balance sheet and even from a hardline DUP perspective what do you have on the debit side? The party must share power with Sinn Féin. But look at the credit side:
The DUP, a self-proclaimed devolutionist party, would be the dominant party in helping run Northern Ireland.
Under the deal hammered out over Christmas there won't be a Sinn Féin justice minister, either senior or junior until 2011 at the earliest, if then.
In the 17 months to May 2008, if Sinn Féin fails to honour its commitments to policing, the DUP can collapse the Assembly and Executive simply by walking away.
If Sinn Féin delivers, the DUP can have the devolution it craved, with Sinn Féin supporting the institutions of the Northern state, including, historically, policing.
All that seems mighty good for Northern Ireland, the island generally, and unionism in particular. Why wreck the possibility of making a state, that never properly worked, work?
It's important to state that there were also carefully crafted but positive DUP comments from Peter and Iris Robinson, Jeffrey Donaldson and Sammy Wilson.
Mr Adams, who has his own dissident internal "noises off", as he ponders his next move, now knows how David Trimble felt when he was being shafted by Sinn Féin. Yet, with the proper nerve and desire he could still out-manoeuvre his own and the DUP rejectionists.
He says that, whatever about Mr Dodds, Mr Allister and so on, that he accepts that Dr Paisley wants this to succeed and that when the DUP leader said he was a man of his word at St Andrews he meant it. Dr Paisley, even allowing for a negative interpretation of his statement yesterday, has said over recent days that if Sinn Féin delivers he won't be found wanting, and that there can be a timeframe for devolving policing.
But just as Mr Trimble had to trust Mr Adams so must Mr Adams must trust Dr Paisley to deliver. If he takes a gamble and proceeds with and carries an ardfheis, then the DUP could hardly justify not allowing devolution on March 26th.
The DUP opponents of powersharing would be equally hard-pressed to deny the devolution of policing powers by May 2008 if Sinn Féin's commitment to policing was evident. And would Dr Paisley - if he is still at the DUP helm by then - allow his colleagues to dishonour a solemn pledge.
Talk will continue with Mr Blair and through the prime minister with Dr Paisley in the days ahead to try to make it easier for the Sinn Féin leader. But Mr Adams has to jump.