One hundred and fifteen cardinals representing the world's 1.1 billion Roman Catholics begin their conclave in the Vatican today to elect the 265th Pope.
All but two of them were appointed by Pope John Paul II, whose extraordinary record overshadows their deliberations, although most of them are personally relative strangers to one another. His successor will need a two-thirds majority in the first 30 rounds of voting and half of the votes thereafter. Going on the precedents set in the last 100 years it is not likely that the cardinals will need the 15 days it would take them to reach a simple majority, since the longest conclave in that period lasted five days.
So much for the political arithmetic. It is an essential part of this venerable and secretive process but not the essence of it. This, Catholic believers insist, is a spiritual decision to select the leader of their universal church, taken in a state of deep reflection and prayer. God's will is made manifest through the political behaviour of these men as they choose between candidates with different skills, experiences and policies to lead their church. Anyone following the story must bear this spiritual dimension fully in mind - however much it is also political behaviour of a high order with important religious and public consequences for one fifth of the world's people - and therefore for many others as well.
John Paul II, like all his most prominent predecessors, has bequeathed many problems as well as major achievements to his church after one of the longest pontificates on record. Alongside his unprecedented evangelisation and travel there was a sharp centralisation of authority in Rome, empowering the Vatican Curia against national churches and bishops. Conservative religious doctrine was enforced in an authoritarian fashion on those who disagreed or differed in their theological interpretations. Many women and members of the laity feel excluded from church structures which they believe should be open to them. Priestly celibacy is being questioned as a barrier to falling vocations in Europe and the United States. Traditional teachings on sexual morality, homosexuality and contraception are rejected by many practising Catholics. Social justice and growing global inequality are in the foreground in the African and Latin America heartlands of Catholic growth, where more than 50 per cent of its believers are to be found, many of them inspired by the John Paul papacy.
Against such an uneven background of achievement, the cardinals must decide this week between continuity or change: an Italian or another non-Italian; a European or an American; a transitional and older man or a younger man for the longer term; a traditional conservative or an innovator; a centralising or a collegial figure. Their task is to protect and renew the Catholic Church by selecting its spiritual and temporal leader. Renewing the energies of its laity and clergy should be their priority following John Paul's leadership.