The Irish and British governments are determinedly optimistic about the outcome of the Northern Ireland talks process and have adopted tentative plans to hold simultaneous referendums on both sides of the border to ratify the hoped-for political agreement, next May. Their ambition is to be lauded, even if the assessment of the negative forces ranged against them, inside and outside of the talks process, may be suspect. During the next six weeks, the two governments, in association with the United States administration, will bring all of their influence and persuasion to bear on the parties in an attempt to reach an historic compromise on a three-stranded political settlement. Given the yawning gulf that separates the various negotiating positions, particularly those of the Ulster Unionist Party and Sinn Fein, the task will be extraordinary difficult.
During discussions in London over the past number of days involving the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, the British Prime Minister, Mr Blair, and the leader of the Ulster Unionist Party, Mr Trimble, a shift has taken place in Government thinking in relation to the approaching political "endgame". The political parties will not now be afforded the luxury of a joint Government prescriptive paper in the last days of negotiation, defining the likely shape of a political settlement. Instead, the Governments will embark on an intensive series of bilateral or trilateral discussions with party leaders over the next three or four weeks, complementing the Stormont talks, in an attempt to close the gap that exists between the parties.
Mr Ahern spoke of ten major areas that would have to be worked through by the governments and the various parties in order to deal with major difficulties. This new approach will focus attention on the willingness, or otherwise, of the parties to engage seriously in negotiations and attempt to build a political agreement from the bottom up.
In that regard, the negative posturing of the Ulster Unionist Party and Sinn Fein must be a source of profound depression. At a stage when the two communities are desperate to secure a lasting peace and time for negotiations is running out, Mr Trimble has objected to the early return of Sinn Fein to the talks and has threatened to engage in disruptive practices. For his part, Mr Adams demanded a meeting with Mr Blair in advance of his party's re-entry to the talks. And both men submitted position papers on behalf of their parties which failed to accept the political framework of a settlement, as outlined by the two Governments. At a time when efforts should be underway to educate their followers about the need for compromise and accommodation, Mr Adams and Mr Trimble are still engaged in the politics of denial and blame-transference. Efforts by Northern Ireland Church leaders to counter this negative approach have to be applauded. The Presbyterian Moderator, Dr Sam Hutchinson, called on both communities to grasp the present "historic opportunity" as an alternative to further violence and killing. It is a stark choice. It may help to concentrate the minds of the politicians involved.