The second day of counting in the local and European elections is well under way, with some counts having continued through the night. So what should we look out for in the coming hours?
Though results will continue to arrive in the local elections all day – only about a third of the seats have been filled at this stage – the focus for many observers will switch to the European elections, with more substantial tallies than those available yesterday being completed.
The actual counts will take much longer. In 2019, only Dublin managed a first count on Sunday evening. And these ballot papers are longer and therefore more time-consuming than they were five years ago.
[ Election results count: Follow liveOpens in new window ]
Very early indications suggest the strength of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael in the local counts will be replicated in the Euros. And while there can sometimes be differences between how people vote in the two contests – it would be surprising if the picture was to change significantly. This means there should comfortably be a Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil MEP in each of the three Euro constituencies – with a possibility of a second seat for either in the Ireland South and Midlands-North-West five-seaters.
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The danger for Sinn Féin is that with two candidates in each of the constituencies, it could split a disappointing vote too evenly and end up without a seat. In Dublin, for instance, the party’s vote in the local elections has been tallied at about 11 per cent. Anything like that in the European counts, split between two candidates, puts their chances of winning a seat in danger.
It would be a little freakish if Sinn Féin was to end up without any European Parliament seat, it came into the election with one. But members and supporters will be watching the tallies today with nervousness. For Sinn Féin, the question of the day is just how bad does it get? Party leader Mary Lou McDonald must also decide what she says to a shattered party.
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In the local counts, there is a few things to note. Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are battling it out to be the largest party, with the edge currently held by Fine Gael, though Fianna Fáil’s high number of incumbents may yet close that gap. Either way, there won’t be much in it.
Both parties are slogging along at 22-23 per cent – close to their general election level. Support for their partners in Government, the Green Party, is down for sure – but it is holding up well in Dublin at local level. If these trends continue in the counts, the three Coalition parties between them will be very close to the 50 per cent that they won at the general election. If that is indeed what happens, it’s a remarkable result.
[ View the results to date in your local constituencyOpens in new window ]
Today will also shed light on the exact composition of the wave of independents that has swept the country. Let’s not forget that both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael (and the Greens for that matter) will lose council seats. So who is picking them up? In particular there will be a focus on the candidates from far-right parties, a small number of whom are likely to be in contention in the later counts.
The full local results will put in perspective the strength – or otherwise – of the political far-right in Ireland. Same goes for the performance of the many far-right candidates in the European contests.
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