2024 was the year of elections. It was the first time in the history of the State that three pivotal polls – local, European and general elections – were all held within the same year.
There were also two referendums, two leadership changes in Government parties, the restoration of the Northern Ireland Executive after a long hiatus, and a US presidential election, the aftershocks of which were felt on these shores.
They all came at a time when the economy continued to thrive, with no sign of windfall profits from corporation tax abating. Moreover, the State was told it had to accept €13 billion in Apple tax money.
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The international context was volatile and fraught. Israel continued its bloody onslaught of besieged Gaza. The Russian-Ukraine war continued into a third calendar year. These events had spillover effects in Ireland: indirectly because they contributed to the number of people seeking refuge here; and directly because of the State’s increasing profile internationally as a critic of Israel’s bombardment of Gaza.
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Politically, at the start of 2024, Sinn Féin looked like a government in waiting. In The Irish Times Ipsos B&A poll in September 2023, the party’s support level was 34 per cent, significantly ahead of Fianna Fáil (20 per cent) and Fine Gael (18 per cent). If any party looked in trouble, it was Fine Gael. Half of its TDs – some of them still young – had indicated they would retire at the election. Leo Varadkar was trailing other leaders in the popularity stakes. For its part, Fianna Fáil was stuck in a holding pattern of support in the high teens.
September 2023 was the peak of Sinn Féin’s popularity. By February it was down six points to 28 per cent and, by May 2024, it was at 23 per cent, a drop of 11 points in eight months.
The fall in support coincided with increasing protests over immigration. The Government parties hardened rhetoric on asylum seekers. So too did Sinn Féin.
[ Immigration and the rise and fall of the Irish far right in 2024Opens in new window ]
One other big event also had significant political implications. The family and care referendums – designed to update the Constitutional protection for mothers in the home – were supported by the Dáil parties, with the exception of Aontú. They were both overwhelmingly defeated in early March, partly over uncertainty on definitions of what a “durable relationship” meant and what obligations to carers were placed on the State by the phrase “strive to support”.
Taoiseach Leo Varadkar responded by saying the electorate had given the Government “two wallops”. Later that month, he travelled to the US for the annual “shamrock bowl” ceremony.
Within days of returning home, Varadkar announcedthat he was resigning. It was unexpected and took everybody by surprise. He told Fine Gael colleagues. “In the absence of anyone trying to stab me in the back, I have decided to fall on my own sword.”
People pointed to the referendum defeats as the trigger, but Varadkar said it was wider than that. The party was struggling in the polls, was about to lose half its parliamentary party to retirement, and needed a new jolt of energy in advance of the local and European elections.
The source of that new energy became known within 24 hours. By 6pm the following day, Simon Harris had secured the backing of 35 of the 54-strong parliamentary party and was on his way to becoming Taoiseach.
He spoke about returning to core principles. It involved a tougher message on immigration and rowing back on hate legislation, which was facing headwinds from colleagues and from the public.
Fianna Fáil (with 248 seats) and Fine Gael (with 245) both lost seats in the local elections and Sinn Féin made gains. Yet, it was received as a big loss for Sinn Féin. It had had a terrible local election in 2019 so its 21 seat gain in 2024 (to 102) was seen as modest indeed. For the first time, avowedly right-wing candidates won seats, with six councillors elected in the Greater Dublin Area.
In the European elections, Fianna Fáil made two gains, Labour made a morale-boosting breakthrough in Dublin with Aodhan Ó Riordáin, and Sinn Féin (despite the negative vibes) actually gained a seat. The big losers were the Greens and the two maverick Independent MEPs, Clare Daly and Mick Wallace. Fianna Fáil’s Barry Andrews had the most cutting line of the campaign when he told Clare Daly in a TV debate: “You should think more about Crumlin and not the Kremlin.”
By this stage, Michael McGrath had been appointed European Commissioner and Jack Chambers succeeded him as Minister for Finance, and now had the status as his party’s “dauphin”.
On June 18th, Eamon Ryan stood down as Green leader insisting it had not been driven by the “bittersweet” results in the local and European elections. Roderic O’Gorman replaced himin early July after narrowly defeating Senator Pippa Hackett.
The summer economic statement gave an indication of what was to come in the Budget. Finances remained buoyant, thanks to the continuing bumper income from corporation tax. Paschal Donohoe and Chambers said the budgetary tax package would be worth €1.4 billion and extra spending of €6.9 billion. It would bring State spending in 2025 over €100 billion for the first time.
In September, Sinn Féin seemed to be recovering. But late that month, it ordered two press officers to resign when it became known they provided reference to a former colleague, Michael McMonagle, who was convicted of sex offences. The party was thrown into crisis. It was compounded during October when the party had to admit – almost a year after the fact – that Senator Niall Ó Donnghaile had resigned his position because he sent inappropriate messages to a 16-year-old boy.
Then, Laois TD Brian Stanley dramatically resigned from the party accusing it of a witch hunt. It emerged that a draft report from an internal party inquiry had concluded that his actions in an incident involving a woman complainant amounted to “gross misconduct” and “sexual harassment”.
The line of Harris, Martin and O’Gorman that the Government would serve its full term seemed increasingly thin. In early November, the Taoiseach announced the date of the election as November 29, allowing a three-week campaign.
One into election mode, the mindset of politicians and the electorate changed. Immigration had receded as an issue. The multiplicity of problems facing Sinn Féin in the run-up hardly featured. The campaign itself was low-octane with no big developments or surges.
Most parties made big spending promises on childcare, law and order, carers’ means testing, health and housing. The biggest debates centred on housing, healthcare, and the trustworthiness of parties as leaders of government.
In the end the result reflected the standing of the parties throughout 2024. Fianna Fáil won marginally more votes but got a seat bonus, because of better vote management and its selection of (well-known) incumbents and candidates. Both Sinn Féin and Fine Gael recovered some support in the last days of the campaign. The Social Democrats were the trending party, picking up transfers across the board. They and the Labour Party made good seat gains, based on small percentage increases. For the Greens, it was a different story. The party lost almost half its support in the elections. It turned out to be almost the catastrophe of 2011 when it lost all its seats. Its failure to attract transfers saw it lose 11 of its 12 seats.
With 48 seats, Fianna Fáil had the whip hand. Combined with Fine Gael’s 38 seats, it was only two votes short of a majority. That was reduced to one with the election of Verona Murphy as Ceann Comhairle. Heading into the new year , the most likely shape of government is a group of centrist independents joining the two Civil War parties.
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