Trump tariffs: Ministers brace for chill winds on ‘Liberation Day’

There is no doubt that Ireland is beginning to feel the impact of global events on a number of fronts. At the weekend, Minister for Enterprise Peter Burke admitted that the current geopolitical situation, particularly the policies of the Trump administration, would impact the Irish economy, though he hastened to add that it would not be like the shock of 2008. A bit of comfort there, not cold certainly, but not warm either.

It’s reflected in the main stories this morning. Pat Leahy reports that college fees could creep back up from €2,000 to €3,000 this year, reversing a trend under the previous government for the gradual elimination of fees. Minister for Higher Education James Lawless might consider an effective increase to the fee and using the money saved to promote access to higher education, when budgetary discussions begin later this year.

The reduction in fees was introduced as part of cost-saving measures and it is understood the department is of the view that €3,000 is the base figure, rather than €2,000. It means fees could be more than €2,000 in the forthcoming academic year for about 70,000 students. That makes up slightly over half – more than 66,000 students get all or some of their fees paid by the State.

The main lead this morning, reported by Conor Gallagher, shows there has been a significant increase in the number of aircraft permitted to bring military weapons and ammunition through Ireland or on Irish-registered aircraft, a 14 per cent increase on last year, and a significant two-thirds increase over the past decade.

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Political system braces for ‘Liberation Day’

The change has been attributed to the war in Ukraine and Israel’s bombardment of Gaza, with most of its weapons, ammunition and materiel being provided by the United States.

On Wednesday, Senators Alice-Mary Higgins, Lynn Ruane, Frances Black and Eileen Flynn will bring forward a Bill that “seeks to ensure that munitions of war, weapons and dangerous goods are not being transferred to Israel through Ireland, either directly or indirectly”.

In another significant story, Tánaiste Simon Harris is expected to brief Cabinet colleagues today that exports of Irish pharmaceuticals could fall by as much as 50 per cent over the next five years if there is a full-scale trade war between the US and EU. It comes in advance of the so-called Liberation Day tomorrow, when US president Donald Trump unleashes a substantial round of global tariffs that will certainly have an impact on Ireland.

Cormac McQuinn and Pat Leahy report that the general tariffs being announced by the president will not be the last and there could be further additional tariffs on specific sectors.

On Monday Taoiseach Micheál Martin said the Irish and European view was that “tariffs are bad for the economy” and “will negatively impact on economic growth across the world”.

That is, for once from a politician, an understatement.

At least the infamous phrase from 2008, “soft landing”, has not yet been used.

Confidence motion

Sitting in the Dáil chamber last week was like being thrown into the middle of a concert by Rammstein, the German heavy metal band with the reputation of being the loudest in the world. The baying from the Opposition benches was deafening, with Pearse Doherty performing what was possibly the world’s longest ever guitar solo.

We are not quite expecting the same high-jinks today with the motion of confidence in Ceann Comhairle Verona Murphy. As we expected, the Government yesterday came in with an amendment and essentially changed it from a motion of no confidence to one of confidence.

The reason for that is simple. It allows the Government to control the debate, by opening it and closing it. See this Q&A for more background on the issues.

I spoke to TDs yesterday and most were of the view that the cacophony won’t reach the same decibel levels. One said it would be “tense”; another said it would be firm from both sides but not a noisy row. “But then, who knows these days?” added this TD with an emoji denoting embarrassment.

The debate will focus on two separate themes, as far as we can make out. The first is the way the Ceann Comhairle handled the debate last Tuesday, if she misstepped, and was there a reason behind that? The Opposition are obviously of the view that she sided with the Government, either through accident or design. They, and she, deny that.

The second theme will hark back to the circumstances behind her appointment. It was obviously one of the preliminary confidence-boosting measures for the Lowry group of Regional Independents in the early days of government formation negotiations with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.

What were the other elements of the deal? Cian O’Callaghan of the Social Democrats and Michael Collins of Independent Ireland have both pursued this line since January. Obviously there was some kind of arrangement hammered out with the Lowry group in relation to speaking rights. Otherwise the Government would not have gone out on a limb to push it through, or, as Ruth Coppinger put it, to die on a ditch for the sake of eight minutes.

The vote will be taken today. The Government side will easily win. Its impact won’t be properly assessed for months. It could be one of those early days in Government blips that will be forgotten about in the fullness of time. Or it could be one of those events that sets the tone for the Dáil term.

The big irony is that the first non-party participant in Leaders’ Questions today will be that new group of “other TDs”. If it’s Michael Lowry, expect spontaneous combustion on the Opposition benches.

Best Reads

Mark Hennessy has a wonderful story from the archives about how Jack Lynch was touched by a letter from a young boy who said he was afraid to play outside after the Bloody Sunday atrocity.

Extraordinary developments in France, where far-right National Rally leader Marine le Pen has been banned from standing for election for five years after being convicted for political embezzlement.

Fintan O’Toole reflects on the lessons for boys from the hit series Adolescence.

Former minister for climate Eamon Ryan says that public transport is key to the new national planning framework.

Playbook

The Cabinet meets this morning, with US tariffs and the national planning framework at the top of the Agenda.

Dáil

14.00: Leaders’ Questions (Sinn Féin, Labour Party, Social Democrats, Independent and Parties Technical Group)

14.34: Order of Business.

15.04: Protection of Voice and Image Bill 2025 – First Stage

15.10: Taoiseach’s Questions.

15:50: Motion of Confidence in the Ceann Comhairle plus vote.

18.32: Motions for Revised Estimates for Public Services 2025 [Votes 24, 41 and 46]

19.32: Private Members’ Business (Sinn Féin): Motion re Support Householders, Businesses and Farmers affected by Storm Éowyn in a fair, equitable and timely manner.

21.32: Parliamentary Questions to Tánaiste and Minister for Foreign Affairs and Trade

23.08: Dáil adjourns