The Simon Harris boom has turned to bust for Fine Gael, with party support sinking to a low of 16 per cent, according to the latest Irish Times/Ipsos B&A poll.
Fine Gael’s vote share climbed on the back of Harris’s elevation in March last year, reaching a high of 27 per cent in September. Achieving just 19 per cent in our November pre-election poll was a sign the honeymoon had ended. Today’s poll result is further confirmation.
Sinn Féin appears to have recovered some of its mojo, jumping six points to 26 per cent since. Sinn Féin is the most popular party in Ireland again.
Fianna Fáil continues to plot a steady course, registering 22 per cent (up one point) in this poll and matching its 2024 and 2020 general election results.
When compared with our November 2024 poll most other political parties have only moved one point or not at all: Social Democrats on 7 per cent, up one; Labour on 5 per cent, up one; Greens on 3 per cent, down one; and PBP/Solidarity on 3 per cent, no change. Aontú are on 1 per cent, a drop of two points.
Irish Times/Ipsos B&A political opinion polls are conducted in-home by experienced interviewers, working across 120 locations, urban and rural, and covering every constituency. Quota controls on key demographics are used to ensure the sample of 1,200 eligible voters is representative of the population.
[ Poll: No honeymoon for this Government as Sinn Féin goes back on top Opens in new window ]
Interviewing for today’s poll was conducted on Monday and Tuesday of this week, against the backdrop of huge upheaval in the global economy. Our new Government has had to hit the ground running, trying to keep Ireland as neutral as possible in the global tariff war that has erupted. At the same time matters closer to home, such as housing, also require attention. Already the Government is battling on many fronts.
Satisfaction with the Government’s performance since the election is at 36 per cent, up one point from where the Fianna Fáil/Fine Gael/Greens coalition left off.
Sinn Féin is the winner in this poll, in absolute (number one) and relative (biggest gain) terms, up 6 points to 26 per cent.
The Sinn Féin bump is underpinned by a revival in its youth vote. Support for the party among the under 35s has surged 18 points to 44 per cent, and dramatically so among the renting/house-buying cohort of 25- to 34-year-olds where its vote has doubled, from 21 per cent to 42 per cent.
Fianna Fáil’s vote has proven over successive polls to be highly durable, helped by the unstinting loyalty of some older voters: the party captures about one in every three votes (31 per cent) among the over 50s.
Holding on to the 22 per cent achieved in the general election is a positive for Fianna Fáil. On the flip side the party appears to be range bound, with a 23 per cent share in April 2022 the highest it has achieved in the past five years.
Only on one previous occasion, in February 1994, did Fine Gael go as low as 16 per cent in an Irish Times/Ipsos B&A poll. Fine Gael is struggling to capture the interest of younger voters, with just 7 per cent support among the under 35s.
Only 17 per cent of the professional and senior managerial classes, also referred to as the ABs, would vote Fine Gael if a general election were held tomorrow. Fine Gael has traditionally relied on the support of affluent voters so any apparent reduction in enthusiasm among this cohort is worth noting.
This latest poll asked voters if Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael were right or wrong to make a deal with Michael Lowry. The majority view is the decision was wrong (64 per cent), with only a small minority (15 per cent) endorsing the deal. Fine Gael voters are three to one against the deal (61 per cent versus 20 per cent).
There remains a considerable gap between the three main parties and the rest, with the Social Democrats (on 7 per cent, up one point) the nearest challenger, followed by Labour (on 5 per cent, up one point).
Participation in government does not appear to have helped or significantly hindered support for Independent candidates, who collectively attract 16 per cent of the vote (down one point).
In times of uncertainty voters rely on politicians to lead. Our current Taoiseach, Micheál Martin, survived his visit to the White House, and is now the most popular party leader with a 45 per cent personal satisfaction rating (up one point). Among Fianna Fáil voters his rating reaches 89 per cent and measures 75 per cent among Fine Gael voters.
Simon Harris has ceded top spot in the popularity stakes, dropping four points to 42 per cent, followed closely by Mary Lou McDonald who is up to 37 per cent. Green Party leader Roderic O’Gorman is down two points to 19 per cent.
The performance of party leaders may take on outsize significance in the years ahead. We will have a change of Taoiseach for sure. And difficult decisions may need to be taken if the economy does not continue its upwards trajectory.
Damian Loscher is Ipsos B&A president
