Martin and Harris: how is the Coalition working?

As Ireland’s political system returns from the Easter break, there is an abiding hope within the Government that the story of the new Coalition so far is mere prologue.

While many of the personalities remain the same, the complexion of the new Coalition has changed from its predecessor, while the challenges it faces continue to evolve.

Government insiders insist that, behind the scenes, the focus on delivery which the Coalition has made central to its brand is generating momentum – but with that comes the pressure of achieving progress.

Meanwhile, the risk of fault lines is ever-present – with frustrations already simmering in the background.

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The obvious difference between this government and the last is the absence of the Green Party, which has been replaced by the Independents. The involvement of Tipperary North TD Michael Lowry in cementing the deal for Independents to back the Government and the speaking rights row which followed have monopolised public attention.

Across the Coalition there is frustration over the damage incurred. The hope is that Lowry recedes in prominence to a level Ministers argue reflects his influence.

“Lowry is very much peripheral in the overall workings of Government,” says a senior Minister.

But the fear is that what one source dubbed his “erratic” behaviour – such as giving People Before Profit TD Paul Murphy two fingers in the Dáil and his desire for media attention – could re-emerge. In the meantime, the Coalition must deal with the political cost of public distaste for the arrangement, and hope nothing inflames it.

Insiders in both parties are buoyant, by contrast, at working alongside Independent Ministers, who they see as workmanlike and low drama.

“They’re not having any Finian McGrath-type wobbles,” confides one Fianna Fáil Cabinet source, while a Fine Gael figure says: “We’ll lose some of our own quicker than those lads, they are locked in.”

Both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael see this as a sharp contrast to the Greens. Such an approach works for the two main parties – chiming with their self-proclaimed focus on pragmatism.

One further advantage of the deal is that the Independents are sole political traders, which means they are given latitude to stand aside from some Government policy – Michael Healy-Rae’s intervention on short-term letting being an example.

There is, of course, the possibility that some issue could stress-test this arrangement further, but insiders argue that one is unlikely to emerge that would unite the Independents.

The Government faces a big challenge with trade and the economy, but the bigger fears are around chronic problems – most acutely, in housing.

There is a palpable sense of something approaching dread around the trajectory of this issue.

The reversal in recent years on the numbers of homes delivered, one source says, suggests growth in recent years was a post-Covid correction and that the true capacity of the sector is lower and more constrained.

In their most dour of moods, the verdict is grim, one source deeming it a “f***ing disaster”. This is coupled with concerns within Fine Gael about the Department of Housing – and also the performance of Fianna Fáil’s James Browne since taking over at the helm.

“All the mood music [about Browne] from every direction is horrendous,” charges one Fine Gael source.

A Fine Gael Minister confides: “Most of us looking in are wondering is your man having the impact level, because to a certain extent, all Government hangs off what we do on housing.”

Fianna Fáil figures defend their man, acknowledging that there have been difficult media outings (“slightly drowning” is the pithy response of one colleague) but insisting that he is finding his feet, pointing to increased money being allocated for housing and the imminent appointment of a housing tsar.

“There was no immediate low-hanging fruit for him to make quick decisions on,” says one Cabinet ally. He is also dealing with the overpromising by his predecessor, Darragh O’Brien, of 40,000 houses last year, which the same Minister says “completely undermined any sense of momentum and progress”.

Allies of Browne argue that he is focused on substantive reforms which they believe will yield long-term results, as well as spending time deeply reading himself into his brief.

The issue of addressing backlogs and scandals in provision for disabled and other vulnerable cohorts is another risk, characterised by one Minister as “an endless crisis and more spending – there’s no sense of us coming out the other end of it”.

Meanwhile, there is no shortage of competitive tension between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil. “There is a constant marking of each other,” says a source, with each side making an “assumption of malfeasance” about the other.

Some senior Fianna Fáil figures are also irked by their partners, deeming them “extremely political” – most notably by Fine Gael leader Simon Harris’s approach, who they believe is finding the transition from taoiseach to tánaiste difficult. They diagnose a “craving for attention” and a “manic desire to be in the media every single day” as being “very disruptive”.

“He’s not learned the lessons of the election, what he should have learned is you can’t be going around like a Duracell bunny,” says one Fianna Fáil Minister.

Fianna Fáil sources also accuse their partners of blindsiding them with policy – something Fine Gael figures reject, arguing what they bring to Cabinet is approved at leader level, and often proposed alongside Fianna Fáil Ministers. They defend Harris’s media prominence, arguing his responsibility for issues such as trade means he has to be public-facing.

For their part, some in Fine Gael push back on suggestions that Taoiseach Micheál Martin has brought his own new energy to proceedings, pressurising the system to achieve results. “If he was really driving this at the pace everyone claims at which he is, we’d have a housing plan ready to go next week,” snipes one party source.

Like every government, the current Coalition has baggage and turf wars layered on its political and policy problems. The test will be keeping these under control as the way ahead is fraught with challenge.