Quite apart from the rule changes, one of the real positive aspects of the Football Review Committee (FRC) is their engagement with data and different stakeholders. One such aspect of this is the emergence of the Games Intelligence Unit (GIU).
Over the course of the league the GIU, under the expert guidance of Johnny Bradley, Denise Martin and Barry Cleary have produced data on games across the NFL, from Division One to Four, comparing differences across the divisions in a number of reports.
The data has been shared on a weekly basis and has helped teams in affording a much sought after central database of information on games. One of the interesting aspects of the numbers which have emerged is how it appears that the game is largely similar across all of the four divisions.
Division Two has a few outliers compared to other divisions, which can in ways be put down to the attacking purpose of Monaghan and Roscommon, and even the strong attacking ethos of the relegated teams of Down and Westmeath, who both scored more than every Division One side with the exception of Kerry.
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A particularly interesting one to emerge is around the kickout data. Division Four has the highest kickout retention across all the divisions at 63%, compared to 61%, 57% and 56% in Division One, Two and Three respectively. You could therefore assume that the kickout strategy in Division Four is excellent and comparable to a Division One team − but that would be ignoring the critical impact of opposition standard from the equation. The opposition’s quality has a massive impact on Key Performance Indicators (KPIs).
A Division Three team like Antrim are used to kicking the ball out against Division Three quality kickout defences and, equally so, defending against similar quality kickouts themselves.
The off-the-ball actions and coherence around kickout are areas where the quality differs greatly between a Division One team like Armagh and a team relegated from Division Three like Antrim.
Much of this success comes down to cohesion and being able to consistently work on out-of-possession structures and how to position yourself to defend opposition kick outs. There is far greater consistency in a panel like Armagh’s, in contrast to when we go down the divisions.
For example, the Munster clash at the weekend between Tipperary and Waterford, saw 19 different starters to the same fixture in 2024. It is hard to effectively build coherent structures with that churn of personnel. It could be argued that a player’s game understanding and ability to work as part of a unit off-the-ball will determine their success at intercounty level. This is not an easy thing to gauge as a county management picks a panel, as they are typically selecting based on a player standing out at club or underage level with their on-the-ball actions.
The difficulty in interpreting or making sense of this data in advance of the clash between Antrim and Armagh at Corrigan Park on Saturday, is that either team making plans for the other are comparing apples and oranges.
Antrim are trying to devise a tactical plan to curtail Armagh while they are using video and data from Division One games, where, with all due respect, the quality of opposition Armagh are facing are better equipped to deal with them than Antrim.
On the other hand Armagh are planning with a deck far more capable of exposing Antrim than the teams in Division Three. The data from the FRC report might suggest there is little difference across divisions, but that is because Division One teams are playing Division One teams, and Division Three teams are playing Division Three teams.
Armagh finished off their league with a facile victory against Derry, winning 4-24 to 1-18. Using kickout defence as an example, in the first half of that game Armagh won six out of 14 of Derry’s first-half kickouts and they really punished these, scoring 0-5 from the six possessions.
The strength of Armagh’s kickout defence only intensified in the second half as Derry were down a man (after Shane McGuigan’s red card) as they won eight out of 16 (50%), and then punished these severely as they scored 3-3, albeit with some good fortune.
Their effectiveness on the opposition kickout was a hall mark of their route to All-Ireland success in 2024 and in this game they won 47% of Derry’s kick outs, scoring 3-8. Expect Antrim to be suffocated on their own kickout in Corrigan Park and Armagh to pile on the scores as Antrim struggle to get out.
Contrast this to Antrim’s penultimate league game against Sligo, which was in the melting pot until the final whistle, as Sligo won 1-18 to 1-15. Sligo had a total of 22 kick outs, managing to retain possession on 16 of these. Antrim failed to nail that double advantage of punishing a kickout won as they only scored 0-3 (including a two-point free brought back outside the arc) from the six balls they won. Sligo went short seven times, winning six of these and they worked five of these into attacking half, despite an effort at pressing from Antrim.
But let’s attempt to compare apples and oranges. If we look at the images below we can see that Antrim show a lack of a unit coherence in how they are set up for the Sligo kickout. One of the forwards has his back to the ball and is not connected to a man, while Dermot McAleese has identified the threat out on the left wing as the Sligo half-back punches into that area, winning the kickout on the front foot with an open field ahead of him.
Compare this to the Armagh kickout defence against Derry as Ben McKinless surveys his options. Armagh are set up with three Derry men penned in by the Arc and two Armagh forwards on the right side of the Arc, while a man at the apex of the Arc has the central channels blocked off. The two Armagh men on the right manage to get out under the break and Armagh manage to punish them with a goal. All the Armagh team are tuned into their off-the-ball actions − the same cannot be said of the Antrim players.
Coherence on opposition kick outs is absolutely fundamental in the wake of tthe FRC adjustments. Armagh were a team who last year were able to turn the screw at time on opponents when it came to kickouts.
It is often the case that teams try to replicate what the All-Ireland winners do in an attempt to close the gap. This area of the game is even more fundamental this season due to the reduced area the keeper can hit, the smaller area that forwards need to cover off and with the keeper no longer being an outlet to recycle through.
The opposition kick out really affords teams the opportunity to exert dominance during periods when they have momentum in games. The best teams this summer will suffocate teams in this area. Expect Armagh to dominate the Antrim kickout and snuff out any chance of a Corrigan ambush.
Paul O’Brien is a performance analyst with The Performance Process (twitter.com/NoPlanBGAA).
