This year’s championship has turned into some sort of black hole for anyone assessing form. The runners-up in both the Munster and Leinster finals have been beaten by the counties finishing third in the other province.
To put this in context, only two third-placed teams have reached the All-Ireland semi-finals in the five years of this format. Now, both have qualified.
So, it’s hard to figure out any correlation between the form in the provinces. Are there any pointers from last year’s championship?
The overriding question is, were Limerick worse than they were last year? Probably. Clare had a difficult season and went out. Is there any side as good as their 2024 vintage in this year’s semi-finals? Possibly not.
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The point here is that Kilkenny, who have not really uncovered any new players, are back in the last four in much the same shape as a year ago but there might not be a team left in the championship as good as the one that beat them 12 months ago.
In other words, has the standard come back to meet Kilkenny because I’m pretty sure that the level this year is not as good as it was last year?
Logically, it was impossible see how Dublin could beat Limerick based on established form.
They obviously underperformed against Galway, which threw a lot of people off. It’s likely that Parnell Park is not really a suitable venue for this Dublin team because they have a lot of pace and movement around the middle of the field, whereas the venue helped Galway, who don’t have those attributes.
Dublin also brought spirit and energy against Limerick. It was visible all over the field but especially with Conor McHugh in the full-back line and Brian Hayes at midfield. Niall Ó Ceallacháin deserves huge credit for simplifying the team’s hurling and approach.
At the same time, things went right for them in the quarter-final once they weathered Chris Crummey’s sending off. He is suspended for this but Cork have lost the ultra-dependable Séamus Harnedy to injury.
When Dublin stood up to Limerick, John Kiely’s men wilted a little bit – everyone watching would have expected him and Paul Kinnerk to make short work of a 14-man opposition over that length of time.
Maybe they were even subconsciously complacent. Dublin hit them with serious and immaculately timed blows. Just as they were finally falling behind in the second half, they find two goals in about half a minute. They back that up with Seán Brennan’s amazing save on Aaron Gillane. This was a high-quality ambush.
Cork, well rested after their Munster final win, look like far more dangerous opponents, but last year in Thurles they were run quite close by Dublin in the quarter-final. There were extenuating circumstances – the ridiculous lunchtime throw-in and a stomach bug in the camp – but the Dubs didn’t prevent Cork doing a number on them in the early stages.
It was as if by the time Dublin realised they actually had a chance, the game was gone. They still cut the deficit to five by the end and had a handful of goal chances that were either saved by Patrick Collins or scrambled away. This was despite Dónal Burke’s free-taking going awry before he was replaced by Seán Currie, who was excellent against Limerick two weeks ago.
Cork are not alone Munster champions for the first time in seven years but they also won the league in very impressive style. Their last couple of games in that competition, against Clare in Ennis and Tipperary in the final, were outstanding. Have we seen that Cork since though?
All of their Munster matches up to the final were marked with asterisks: losing a 12-point lead to Clare; looking porous in the big win over a Tipp team down to 14 from the throw-in; the meltdown against Limerick and a very jittery win over Waterford.
Credit to Pat Ryan for landing the Munster title after a penalty shoot-out, but although Mark Coleman, Darragh Fitzgibbon and newcomer Diarmuid Healy were excellent, where was the league menace from their full-forward line? Limerick had the winning of that match but squandered it.
The genie Cork unbottled last year hasn’t really been glimpsed since the first half in Ennis.
Ultimately, though, Dublin beat a Limerick team that simply didn’t turn up for the quarter-final. One thing we can be sure of is that Cork will turn up, and I expect them to win even if Dublin are awkward enough to test them.
Sunday’s semi-final is complicated because, as mentioned at the top, I have no idea what the ‘relativities’ between the provinces are at this stage. Kilkenny are Leinster champions and don’t look to me like they have disimproved in any way.
You could say they have added a couple of players in Jordan Molloy and Shane Murphy, but they were panellists and the team is much the same as lost to Clare last year.
Mossie Keoghan has been in good form and Eoin Cody is back from injury so it’s a recognisable package – extremely recognisable, as they have been on the road so long and there aren’t many miles left for a lot of them.
So, it’s now or never for a team that has been waiting to redeem what they see as a preventable defeat against Clare last year.
Apart from a brief spell against Dublin, they weren’t really stressed at all in Leinster. They will, as ever, do what it says on the tin, but I think Tipperary are very dangerous opponents.
It has already been a successful year for Liam Cahill, almost regardless of this weekend’s outcome. They are an improving team who came out of Munster and won their quarter-final against Galway.
They won’t get the space they got that day in Limerick but I think they will continue to improve in Croke Park. I wouldn’t be worried about their lack of experience at the ground because they do not have a whole lot to lose, and in that frame of mind, against Kilkenny, Tipperary are dangerous.
Tipp’s biggest vulnerability is to pace but I’m not sure that Kilkenny, beyond Billy Ryan, bring huge amounts of that.
What Cahill’s team have is a good crop of newcomers, with young players Darragh McCarthy, Sam O’Farrell and Robert Doyle at corner back finding their feet. Jake Morris has been truly outstanding and Andy Ormond is having a great first season.
Many of these players are completely new to this situation but this is an improving team with a lot of energy, who have been tempered by two torrid visits to Páirc Uí Chaoimh, a win in Ennis and now getting to Croke Park for the first time in six years.
Their hurling is sharp and they are scoring freely, well capable of goals and using the ball really well. They can really rattle Kilkenny but Derek Lyng’s team have a more pressing need.
There are good days ahead for Tipperary but maybe this Sunday is a little too soon.
