While the various machinations of your average Allianz Football League final day is usually enough to keeping the paracetamol industry in profit for another year, the 2015 renewal looks particularly knotted.
Although Divisons Three and Four have the majority of their business boxed off already, the possibilities are close to infinite in the top-two streams, with an array of semi-final places, promotions and relegations all up for grabs. Pay attention at the back.
In Division One, only two of the eight teams are certain of their fate. Cork will be in the semi-final come what may, Derry will be in Division Two come 2016. Otherwise, it’s all down to Sunday’s results.
Despite sitting in second place, Monaghan are still not guaranteed a semi-final spot with Dublin travelling to Clones. Should the home side lose, they would be passed by Dublin and also by the winner of Mayo v Donegal.
Prevail
They would hang onto fourth place as long as Kerry don’t beat Tyrone and even if Éamonn Fitzmaurice’s side do prevail in Omagh, they would have to turn around a 15-point deficit with Monaghan to advance.
Dublin’s massive points difference surplus (+19) means a draw against Monaghan will put them through unless Kerry beat Tyrone by over 30 points.
If Jim Gavin’s side lose, however, they will be passed by the winners of Mayo v Donegal and Kerry, in the event of a Kingdom win in Omagh.
By virtue of Kerry’s paltry points difference (-11), they are the only team whose Sunday can feasibly end with either a semi-final or relegation place.
If they lose in Omagh by two points or more, Fitzmaurice’s team will be in Division Two next year. But a win gives them a fighting chance of making the semis. They will need either Dublin to lose or Mayo v Donegal to end in a draw for it to happen but it’s possible.
By contrast, the relegation stakes are pretty straightforward.
With Derry already gone, it’s virtually certain to be either Tyrone or Kerry joining them. Tyrone need at least a two-point win to go ahead of Kerry, anything else and they’re gone.
Neither Donegal nor Mayo are mathematically safe but their points differences are so far superior as to make them, for all intents and purposes, uncatchable.
If Division One is honours maths, Division Two is nuclear physics.
Alone among the four divisions, no team has yet been guaranteed a place in either the top two or the bottom two. Down lead on eight points but can be overtaken by Roscommon, either Meath or Cavan (or conceivably, although it is highly improbable, both), and even fifth-placed Galway.
Down can simplify matters with a win over Laois in Newry, leaving the other place in the final almost certain to come down to points difference. Meath are the favourites thanks to a home tie against Cavan and a points difference surplus of +14. But if Cavan win and Roscommon beat Westmeath, it will be a calculator job.
No Clearer
Things are no clearer at the bottom, except to say that both Westmeath and Kildare have to win if they’re to have any chance of survival. Westmeath’s points difference is drastic at -22, meaning their best chance is to beat Roscommon and hope Kildare and Laois both lose.
Kildare need to beat Galway by at least four points and hope either Laois or Westmeath lose. They could get away with a draw but only if Laois lose by at least seven in Newry.
As for Laois, a draw will be enough to see them to safety. Galway need a draw or even just a marginal defeat against Kildare.
Whatever happens, there’s going to be a whirlpool of confusion around 4.20 on Sunday as it all gets sorted out.
Life in Division Three is much simpler. Fermanagh and Armagh are already promoted, with Wexford all but relegated thanks to a points difference of -40. Most likely to join them will be whoever loses between Louth (-24) and Limerick (-25) in Drogheda.
Complicated
In the event of a draw in that game, Sligo and Clare will come into the mix and things will start getting complicated. Clare have the head-to-head advantage over Sligo if it comes down to it.
As for Division Four, Longford are already promoted. Joining them in the final will be the winners of Offaly v Antrim in Tullamore. In the event of the draw in that game, Offaly will be promoted with the superior points difference.
