Next-door neighbours take battle to new level

The Paul Nicholls stablemates are hard to choose between but when it comes to the crunch expect style and speed to tell

The Paul Nicholls stablemates are hard to choose between but when it comes to the crunch expect style and speed to tell

'ONE-TO-ONE' or 'hand-to-hand' may be the English phrases but the Spanish variation on the big clashes somehow projects a greater grandeur. The best rivalries are always mano-a-mano. The real top rivalries also have something of a cartoon element to them: Coe's snootiness versus Ovett's sneer, Prost's calculation against Senna's outrageousness, Borg's cool in reply to McEnroe's sulphur, even Bobby Fischer's brilliant lunacy against Boris Spassky's communal boredom.

It's been quite a while since Cheltenham has had something like that but dip a toe into the anticipation of Friday's Gold Cup clash between Kauto Star and Denman and then recognise the unmistakable anticipatory tingle of an eyeball-to-eyeball face-off.

Maybe the Champion Hurdle clash in 1980 of Monksfield and Sea Pigeon was the last time the festival witnessed such eagerness for a championship tussle. But they had met each other many times before. Instead, the most common reference point for this year's Gold Cup is jump racing's most memorable race ever, when Arkle and Mill House finally settled an international argument of supremacy in the 1964 blue riband.

READ MORE

There's no such jingoistic frisson this time. It's much more tightly focused than that. The lens has to cover only two stable boxes next door to each other in the one stable in rural Somerset.

Far from diluting the rivalry though, the familial edge only seems to be adding the sort of bite that Denman could deliver to Kauto if leaning over far enough.

In the cartoon representation, the first bite would hardly come the other way. If Denman is the big bruiser who grinds his opposition into the dirt with a roistering flamboyance, then Kauto is the opposite. An enormous natural talent can sometimes allow him make it all look ridiculously easy.

Whereas his rival, reared in the Irish point-to-point fields, will slash and tear his way to the front, Kauto's French soul favours the more subtle rapier thrust of a late finish - definitely more Ali than Frasier.

In the circumstances then, those of us who talked up the dilemma facing Ruby Walsh in having to choose between the two horses were ignoring human nature. Kauto Star's position as the current Gold Cup holder was always going to make it all but impossible for the great jockey to switch sides.

The fact Kauto's King George demolition job last Christmas might just have been his best single performance to date only made Walsh's decision easier.

What will be nagging him, however, is the suspicion that in this tough game, the up-and-comer is usually the horse you want to be on. The difficulty of organising even exceptional equine talent to peak when it counts most cannot be overestimated. Keeping it there is even harder still.

Horses like Arkle, Cottage Rake, L'Escargot and Best Mate, were so exceptional purely because the task of staying at the top is so hard in such a harshly attritional sport. What's normally needed is a horse on the up, which is Denman. But then Kauto has already proven himself a long way from normal.

"I saw him last year and I thought he was one of the most impressive Cheltenham Gold Cup winners I've ever seen," is the view of Michael Dickinson, who knows a thing or two about what it takes to win a Gold Cup.

Paul Nicholls is holding the aces this time but 26 years ago Dickinson had five of them and placed them one after the other. He's not alone in being slightly awestruck by Kauto Star.

Tony McCoy has had variously respectful views of Kauto's rear end in the last two seasons on board Exotic Dancer. After the King George, however, it appears resignation has set in.

"It's not often you go to the fourth-last in a King George and hear the jockey behind you going 'Whoa'," he remarks.

But for every Kauto fan, there's another who thinks Denman will wrest the Gold Cup crown away.

Adrian Maguire is another former Gold Cup winner and not surprisingly, since he moulded Denman's talent as a pointer, he firmly believes the big horse will emerge best.

"Don't get me wrong, Kauto is extremely talented," Maguire says. "I simply feel he's vulnerable. Three miles and two is still a worry, even though he has won a Gold Cup.

"He's hanging, he's jumping to his left, and I'm still not convinced about his jumping. Maybe he had so much class last year that he had to win."

The stamina issue is an interesting one. Vincent O'Brien always believed a 10-furlong horse could win the Derby at Epsom and pointed to Sir Ivor as an example. But he was an exceptional champion. Most other evidence suggests championship races aren't won by non-stayers.

However, Maguire isn't alone in suspecting Kauto Star's stamina.

"I'd be inclined to agree," says Conor O'Dwyer, who has a pedigree of two Gold Cup victories under his belt, including War Of Attrition in 2006. "Look back to the third-last fence last year and there's a big bunch there with a chance that shouldn't have been there.

"The time was very slow and it ended up looking an ordinary Gold Cup. I was watching it wishing War Of Attrition could have run and we'd have set sail from three out and put it up to him."

Maguire also believes Denman is a much more dangerous opponent than Exotic Dancer and co, whom Kauto has been beating regularly.

"Denman was a natural from day one," he argues. "He gallops, jumps and stays and he's a big, strong horse. That could be important.

"It's going to be a battle. There's no other way to win a Gold Cup. It won't be a sprint from the last. It'll be a war of attrition with no prisoners taken."

That said, there's no proof a slog from the last will be something to expose any vulnerability in Kauto Star.

"He can do anything, from two miles, to two-and-a-half, to three and three and two," argues Michael Hourigan. "He's a proper racehorse, as good as I've seen in the last 20 years. The other horse is good but I don't know if he has the gears to beat the other fella."

O'Dwyer agrees and adds: "The only way I can see Denman beating him is if it turns into a real slog. And he'll have to make all the running, which is very hard to do in the Gold Cup."

Even if Denman makes a heroic stab at doing just that, there will still be the spectre of his next-door neighbour stalking him the whole way. There aren't many opponents in the recent history of the game that would be more feared in that role.

Take another look back at the run into the straight last year and recognise the faint signs of unease Walsh briefly showed on Kauto Star. With most horses, that would have quickly morphed into an arm-flapping struggle. Kauto Star seemed to engage another gear and strode on to a dramatic win. He has done that more than once before. It gives him an armoury that even after all his success to date may not be fully used up.

Jump racing might be the blood-and-guts alternative to the flat's more cerebral appeal but it doesn't matter if it is five furlongs or five miles - the fastest horse wins. So when it comes to the crucial stages on Friday, expect class to win out.

Celebrity viewWill the stars shine at the festival? ... compiled by Brian O'Connor

Who will win the Champion Hurdle?

Kauto Star or Denman?

Bet of the meeting?

Lay of the meeting?

How many Irish winners?

What are you looking forward to most?

Jerry Kiernan Former athlete

Harchibald can do it this time. I know you're taking a chance with him because he's not straightforward but he's a terrific jumper and Paul Carberry is the perfect rider for him.

Denman is a real old-fashioned Irish chaser who can make a mistake and get away with it. I think he'll force Kauto Star into mistakes and I don't think Kauto is as brilliant as he's made out to be anyway.

I'm going to be loyal to Kerry and go with Tom Cooper's horse, River Liane, who won last weekend and is in the Fred Winter on Tuesday.

I said Kauto Star last year and he won. But I don't think Exotic Dancer is a great animal. I'll say Kauto again.

Six.

I've been anticipating Cheltenham for weeks. I grew up in Listowel in the Arkle days so for me it's a wonderful week.

Colm Murray RTÉ presenter

Sizing Europe - hopefully. What we saw in the AIG was quite a performance. I just hope he can do the same at Cheltenham.

I'm a Kauto Star fan. He's been there, done that and now he can win the t-shirt - again.

It's hard to find a banker bet this year. But I do give Corskeagh Royale at around 12 to 1 a big chance in the Champion Bumper.

I'm inclined to oppose Harchibald. Having said that, that's usually when he'll step up and do you.

I'll be optimistic and say six.

If Oliver Brady can win the Grand Annual with Maralan, it will be the most amazing thing.

Babs Keating Former hurler and manager

It's between David Pipe's Osana and Henry De Bromhead's Sizing Europe. I'd give the edge to Pipe. His old man won it twice with a couple of horses that came from nowhere.

I'm a Denman fan. He was awful impressive at Newbury. I would be more confident of his jumping than Kauto Star. He let us down before at Cheltenham and I still think there's a mistake in him.

I would have said Franchoek in the Triumph but then Tom Cooper won with River Liane at Leopardstown. He only gets a 4lb penalty.

There's nothing obvious to beat him in the Arkle but it wouldn't surprise me if Noland lost. I don't like the horse.

If we get four, we'll be doing well.

The championship races are huge. Kauto and Denman is massive and the Champion Hurdle looks a real Champion Hurdle.

Robert Hall RTÉ Presenter

Harchibald - why not? At the odds he has a great each-way chance. He will definitely be placed. I would be happy to take on the favourite."

I think Kauto Star is the complete horse now. He has got his jumping together and I've no problems with his stamina. Both the heart and the head say he'll win.

Mansony each-way in the Queen Mother two-mile Champion Chase.

For the want of a better one, I'll say Twist Magic in the Champion Chase.

Seven.

If you're not betting, just watch Ruby Walsh. You will be looking at a master at the top of his game.

Jimmy Barry Murphy Former footballer and manager

I've backed Harchibald at 8 to 1 which I think is unbelievable each-way value. I can't see him out of the first three. And there's nothing special there for him to beat."

Denman's owner Harry Findlay is a friend of mine but I think the horse has a great chance anyway. Cheltenham is the one place where I think he can beat the other one.

Has to be Denman.

I know he's won it twice but I don't fancy Inglis Drever in the World Hurdle.

Four. I think it will be tough enough.

It has to be the Gold Cup. They are two fantastic horses. Hopefully they both make it in top shape and they get around safely.

John O'Donoghue TD Ceann Comhairle

I backed Sizing Europe each-way at 8 to 1 before he won the AIG. I won't be giving the ticket away.

Denman's connections are very confident but I must say I find it very difficult to look past Kauto Star.

The Sizing Europe value is gone now so Franchoek might be the bet of the meeting even though the Triumph is a notoriously difficult race to win.

Earlier in the season I thought Katchit might win a Champion Hurdle but I just don't see it now.

It will be very difficult. Five.

We haven't many trainers in Kerry so it would be wonderful if Tom Cooper could bring off a double with Forpadydeplasterer and River Liane.

Brian O'Connor

Brian O'Connor

Brian O'Connor is the racing correspondent of The Irish Times. He also writes the Tipping Point column