The bigger the field the bigger the certainty is an old racing adage but in the context of 17 runners for today's Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup, an argument can be made for a correspondence between field size and overall quality.
Comparisons with the most famous Gold Cup of all are perhaps unfair but when Arkle beat Mill House in 1964 just two others felt it worthwhile to turn up.
Anyone fortunate enough to be in possession of a high class staying chaser this season is entitled to fancy their chances.
A total of seven Irish-trained hopefuls will attempt to lift a 23rd blue-riband crown for the visitors including the "buzz horse" Djakadam who leads a trio of Willie Mullins horses trying to finally secure an elusive Gold Cup victory for the champion trainer.
Djakadam’s wellbeing is such that Mullins had to change the habits of a lifetime and worked the Gold Cups youngest contender during the week to get the fizz out of him.
It is a sign of how open this Gold Cup is though that Djakadam has tumbled down the betting lists on the back of a Thyestes win which might have come off topweight but still represents handicap form harking back to days when Arkle & Co had little option but to warm up in handicaps.
Of course the straightforward way to look at this final day conundrum is that there is a standout horse on form and ratings and Silviniaco Conti can secure an elusive Gold Cup at the third time of asking.
Wayward passage
The dual-King George hero fell three out in 2013 and looked all over a winner last year until the run-in when a wayward passage up the hill contributed to a massive change of complexion that ultimately saw Lord Windermere and
On His Own
fight out a controversial finish.
Theories as to why Silviniaco Conti appeared to fade in that finish remain plentiful, and according to Paul Nicholls most of them are fanciful.
“He wasn’t finishing out his races last year but he had a problem with gastric ulcers. He’s had treatment, looks really well and I’m much happier with him. He’s a better horse,” Britain’s champion trainer insists.
“It isn’t because he doesn’t act at Cheltenham, he’s just had problems. I’ve no doubts about his stamina.”
Second-guessing Nicholls is a presumptive business and Silviniaco Conti may yet prove the formbook right whatever the terrain. But he still looks a favourite worth taking on with although so many of his opposition represent similar chances in terms of that same formbook.
The English novice Coneygree is an unknown but apart from Djakadam, the other Irish hopes have been knocking their heads together all season with various results.
One sloppy jump here or there could be all that separates Lord Windermere, Carlingford Lough, Road To Riches and the two other Mullins hopes, Boston Bob and On His Own. Official ratings have just a 6lb spread among the lot of them.
The English-trained Hennessy winner Many Clouds is a similar proposition on ratings but his chance will be helped by forecast rain.
However official figures also point to something of a forgotten horse in this Gold Cup.
If Silviniaco Conti is a 174 now, it's worth remembering how Bobs Worth was rated 180 after his 2013 Gold Cup victory, and how he carried that figure into last year's Gold Cup as a 6-4 favourite.
Four lengths
His progress then from that last fence was even more wayward than Silviniaco Conti’s but he still wound up beaten only four lengths despite clearly not finishing the race out.
Barry Geraghty felt afterwards the going was just too quick for him and so overnight forecasts of up to 12mms of rain could wind up as much a help for Bobs Worth as Many Clouds.
A lacklustre Lexus effort at Christmas has been his sole start since and has seen Bobs Worth’s chance widely written off. But he has been beaten just once in six Cheltenham starts overall, is a triple-festival winner, and Kauto Star proved the Gold Cup can be regained.
Backing him to do the same requires some forgiveness for Bobs Worth’s last two efforts but he looks a big price for what he’s achieved overall.
And another racing adage reminds us that while form is temporary class is permanent.
