When you drive on to a roundabout in France, you are entering into an experiment in Darwinian evolution. Adapt or die.
To survive this challenge there are a few essential principles to which you must hold fast.
Firstly, every driver is to be considered hostile. They should be viewed as holding an unconscious, yet malicious intent to deceive you at every opportunity.
Is Ireland vs France the best rivalry of the modern era?
Secondly, any indication, be it a flashing indicator, a hand gesture or a signal of any form, is to be immediately regarded as being an untrustworthy deception of deliberate negligence, designed to entice you into potential calamity.
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Lastly, under no circumstances can you assume that a driver in another car is making decisions that you would consider to be “logical.”
It’s a jungle out there.
So expect what you least expect and expect it every single time you enter into that decision-making contest.
Now take those same survival laws and put them into your match plan to prepare for the French at the Aviva. Every first move by the French may be a decoy. They will not be thinking as you expect them to be. So expect the unexpected. Trust nothing but your team’s ability to adapt, perform and survive.
The last time the French came to Dublin, in 2023, they did the unexpected, which, unexpectedly, delivered a pulsating match that was as good as any I have witnessed.
With no previous indications, the French decided they would deny Ireland their strike plays from lineouts by not kicking the ball into touch. As a consequence, the amount of time the ball was in play rocketed, which in turn produced a wonderful match of side-to-side and end-to-end flowing rugby. It was like two heavyweight champions, standing toe-to-toe, trading blows. The French trying, but unable, to land an early knockout. As the high tempo of the match continued, the French fuel tanks ran dry.
Under the law of unintended consequences, the French tactics, the same ones that created such an epic contest, drove them into exhaustion.
That was then.
Now, Fabien Galthié’s team will arrive in Dublin with more complexity to their game than they had in 2023. This time the French will box clever.
France used their recent demolition of Italy in Rome as a dress rehearsal of their plan to defeat Ireland. The 40-metre forward drive that led to Paul Boudehent’s try provided a glimpse of the power game France will try to impose on Ireland.
While the crowd may have viewed the try as unspectacular, to the tactically minded it was a tour de force of direct rugby. Aggression combined with technically excellent contact skills revealed the immense yet controlled attacking power inside this French pack.
Let us remember that second rows, such as Joe McCarthy, provide the power inside a team. Despite the wealth of playing talent within the Top 14, the French have not had a group of locks they consistently select.
In their search for the right combination in their engine room Paul Willemse, Cameron Woki, Bastien Chalureau, Paul Gabrillagues, Posolo Tuilagi, Emmanuel Meafou and Alexandre Roumat have all been tried and tested. But it has been the introduction of the Lyon-based Mickaël Guillard and the return from injury of Thibaud Flament that appears to have maximised the effectiveness of this French pack.
After the first three games of the championship, France have the most successful lineout (97 per cent), equal highest scrum success (94 per cent) and the greatest number of offloads, (49) while conceding the fewest penalties (17).
In contrast, Ireland have the lowest lineout success (88 per cent), lowest scrum success (85 have) and have missed the most tackles (91). They have scored seven of their 10 tries from lineouts and two from scrums.
While there is truth in the “lies, damn lies and statistics” cliche, the reality is that the foundation for stopping Ireland’s game plan rests in disrupting their possession from set play and giving away a minimum number of penalties. To create chaos in the Irish defence, opposition attacks must produce offloads. New Zealand played this game last November.
Those stats suggest France are highly capable of repeating New Zealand’s success.
After playing Barbarian rugby and failing in 2023, France will seek to earn the right to go around Ireland by first going through them.
They will tear into Ireland’s scrum and lineout. In attack, they are going route one and running their forwards at what they perceive as the weakness of Sam Prendergast’s tackling technique. Sam will have a busy day.
The French spine of Peato Mauvaka, Grégory Alldritt, the great Antoine Dupont, Romain Ntamack and Thomas Ramos provides buckets of unpredictable creativity to sit along side the brute force of their pack.
Le Petit Général Dupont will be the commander in chief. He will wrangle his immensely powerful French pack to punch Ireland straight up the guts before the French attack coach, Patrick Arlettaz, unleashes his backline. With Ntamack restored to the 10 jersey, he will feed the lightning-fast back-three unit of Ramos, Penaud and Bielle-Biarrey to attack on the flanks, swinging as a unit of three to both sides of the field.
The French attack is a potent concoction. And it will be supported by the brutality of their 7-1 bench, which means the performance of the Irish reserve front row will be crucial. Especially Thomas Clarkson and the recalled Rob Herring, who will both be tested to the extremities of their abilities.
As with entering those perilous French roundabouts, here we must show caution. Following a decade of French decline, Galthié deserves great credit for the rediscovery of French panache. They are a joy to watch.
For all of that excellent French play, one Grand Slam since Galthié took over in 2020 has been an underwhelming return for a team possessing such immense talent.
All combined, this vivid, intricate and competing backstory has created the clash of the championship. The winner will almost certainly lift the trophy next weekend.
Ireland will have to be at the peak of their powers for the full 80 minutes. Anything less and the Grand Slam will evaporate into the Dublin sky and Dupont and his team will be heading back to Paris with one hand on the Six Nations trophy.
It is the kind of fixture that only the Six Nations can produce. A belter of enormous proportions awaits.
Ireland, including their replacement forwards, are going to have to perform at their best to prevail in what promises to be a belting Six Nations clash
