Reasons to believe? The local factor. Ulster will always be a force at rebranded Ravenhill, this is the first time they go out to deliver for new director of rugby Les Kiss in European rugby. There is residue from the Jared Payne red card during this very fixture in 2014 and these Ulster players know to lose at home is not an option with rearranged French journeys promised.
They simply have to deliver now. There is neither Payne nor Tommy Bowe but the sight of their new goliath – he of McBride, Davidson, Ferris ilk – returning to his favourite field of play will warm this sold-out gathering on a freezing east Belfast night.
Not only that but Iain Henderson returns to blindside flanker, where he can hunt and hurt with greater freedom, despite the presence of benched Ireland internationals Robbie Diack and Roger Wilson.
Clearly Ulster seek to match the power of these visiting Saracens.
Massive ask
It is a massive ask for any club team in the world, besides Toulon and maybe Clermont, to cope with the sheer size and surging brutality of the Vunipola brothers, of Schalk Brits, or Namibian hero Jacques Burger and rising English beast Maro Itoje.
The 21-year-old flanker, picked at lock by Mark McCall, was untainted by the World Cup campaign as Stuart Lancaster, in another ridiculed non-selection, cut him from his squad before the tournament.
Itoje is showing signs that Saracens may have found an heir to Richard Hill’s throne.
But Rory Best’s pack will meet them on the creaking gainline, where Best and Chris Henry must steal or at least slow any attempts at building up multiple punishing phase play.
That will prove crucial when the expected war of attrition unfolds.
In a duel between Paddy Jackson, presumably place kicking over Ruan Pienaar, versus Owen Farrell, the smart money leans towards the British and Irish Lion.
In fact Saracens, man for man, are a better side but Ulster can land enough blows to launch their European campaign with victory.
Otherwise they are staring into back-to-back matches against a wounded Toulouse with the Oyonnax away trip still needing to be rescheduled.
It’s also going to be interesting to see Kiss getting final say on selection (Darren Cave starts at outside centre alongside big Stuart McCloskey).
“They have a very physical pack, they like to play a direct style and they are always tough to play against,” said Nick Williams,. “You look for a weakness in their team but you struggle to find one. Toulouse were maybe a bit emotional given the events that occurred in France and they maybe played the way Saracens wanted them to.”
Maybe Jackson will be smarter. Pienaar too.
Even if the logical wager goes on Saracens, Ulster at home on a wintry Friday under floodlights can prove irresistible. Especially when they feel wronged. Remember Saracens extinguished any thoughts of European glory in those 2013 and 2014 quarter-finals. Chris Ashton is playing.
The Ulster men never forgets. A game when Jackson can grow some more, a horror for the easily-risen Farrell, Henderson to pick up where he left off and enough impact from the bench should edge a punishing contest.
Verdict: Ulster.
