Coaches are not panaceas. They do not possess the silver bullet that in one lightning shot will kill the “werewolf” of defeat.
Coaching is a process and the process for Joe Schmidt to become a successful international coach will take time.
The coaching process for winning at international level is a different “beast” to the process at provincial level. International coaches have less time with their team and they are also under much more pressure and scrutiny.
The New Zealand national team understands this and has all their provincial coaches working from the same template so all the Kiwi players understanding the national team systems.
The exact opposite is the case in Ireland. The provincial coaches are relatively independent and the playing systems across the four teams are very different.
For Joe, coaching the Irish team will be a learning environment. It is totally different from coaching Leinster. To add to Joe’s difficulties, Ireland have several glaring problems that are not related to coaching.
Of the top 15 Irish players a few are world class and the rest are at international standard. That is a positive.
The negative is that behind those players the quality drops away alarmingly. The key to all this is that the top players are never all fit during the international windows. The lack of depth, especially in key positions like tighthead, has cost Ireland matches.
Of those surviving from the "Golden generation" Gordon D'Arcy is fit, Brian O'Driscoll is short on match fitness and Paul O'Connell is carrying a calf injury.
Real problem
Here is the real problem for Joe. The Irish player pathway is not producing highly skilled players in the numbers required to fill the void. Joe's selection this weekend reflects the need to expose players in key positions to a higher level of rugby, such as loosehead Jack McGrath and outhalf Paddy Jackson.
With the IRFUs continued refusal to enter the men’s IRB Sevens programme, the Irish pathway for developing attacking skills in the next generation of “strike players” is limited.
Despite indisputable evidence from other countries regarding the crossover of attacking players from sevens to 15s, Ireland is isolated as the only leading rugby nation that has no elite sevens pathway.
Then there are the problems that are under Joe’s control. In the past few seasons the national team’s attack has been predictable. In general the Irish attack is missing strong angled running lines and rarely does the point of attack change.
The introduction of more shortside play and patterns that change the direction of the attack are essential.
While Joe’s trademark attack down the last two inches of the width of the field will remain effective, the introduction of variation and unpredictability is paramount.
If an opposition coach can predict what his opponent will do, he can stop it. Recently, Ireland have been defeated because they are predictable.
Open space
In defence, the narrowness of the Irish defensive line leaves large areas of open space on the flanks. This has been a weakness for several years. This should have been fixed before now. To me, this is the major issue facing the team in these first matches of November. Opposition teams know there is space wide and they will attack there. Once again Ireland are predictable.
In the changing world of rugby the rise of the Polynesian players is there for all to see. Individually they are dominating selections in both New Zealand and Australia. In the French Top 14 and the French National team they are also beginning to make their presence felt.
The rise through the IRB World rankings of Tonga, Samoa and to a lesser degree Fiji is unstoppable. As these nations gain control of internal governance polices, the performance of their national teams will continue to improve.
Like Ireland, the Pacific Island nations constantly blame coaches for the failure of their national team, while internal politics, a lack of staff resources and simple day to day organisation are the real cause of their perceived failure.
Functional database
The Samoans are without doubt the best of the Pacific Island nations. They export many players to top clubs in Europe and unlike Tonga and Fiji, the Samoan Rugby Union has a functional database on where the players are.
This tracking system means they can select the best Samoan eligible players across the globe.
The European clubs coach the Samoan players and the national team “borrows” them in the brief windows provided by the IRB. Sound familiar? Spare a thought for Samoa. Imagine Ireland trying to prepare for the Six Nations if every Irish player was like Johnny Sexton and playing in France.
The news this week of tragic and untimely death of the Samoan legend, Peter Fatialofa will provide special motivation for the men in blue. "Fats" was a colossus in Samoa. A leader, a father figure and a role model, his memory will be a powerful motivation for the Samoans.
As the Joe Schmidt era dawns, Ireland should have enough to cope with this weeks threat. However, even with several injuries, don’t under estimate the Samoans.
Ireland may need all the power its bench can muster to get over the line. Samoa are on the rise and their time will come, but not today.
