Johnny Sexton's absence from Murrayfield this Saturday for the opening Six Nations match, and the knock-on effect of his latest injury, dominated Joe Schmidt's media briefing in Carton House.
Sexton has an "outside chance" of returning to the Ireland team for next week's trip to Rome but Peter O'Mahony (grade one/two hamstring strain) is a longer term problem.
"No greater frustration than for Johnny himself," said Ireland coach Joe Schmidt before dealing directly with concerns over Sexton's durability and the non-selection of those, like Ian Madigan,who are playing with foreign clubs.
“[Johnny] is probably frustrated that he did the injury in Castres and that’s hung over to now.
“I think he has played about 82 minutes for the national team in the last eight Test matches so for us it is a real frustration.
"In the three Six Nations I have been involved with, Johnny has dominated the number 10 position, so we are still hopeful that he can come back in and still do that for us. At the same time Paddy [Jackson] has trained really well . . . and had some really good experience in recent times for Ireland."
Schmidt was keen to play down Sexton’s succession of injuries which include shoulder surgery last summer, two hamstring tears, several bangs to his neck and the current calf “tightness.”
“Every player goes through a period of bad luck,” Schmidt went on.
“For us it is about getting him 100 per cent fit before putting him back out there. It was the same for Rob Kearney last year and he looks really robust this year.”
Kearney has suffered with injury since November.
Regarding the policy for selecting home based players over those playing abroad – like former regulars in Schmidt’s Ireland, Madigan and Marty Moore – Schmidt said: “No [the policy] hasn’t [changed]. Ian Keatley’s time at outhalf is not too much different to Ian Madigan’s.
“Ian [Madigan] had an injury and was out for four weeks, he has been mixing up starts and coming off the bench.
“Ian [Madigan] couldn’t train with us last week as he was preparing to come off the bench for Bordeaux-Bégles against Clermont.”
The key issue, as Schmidt mentioned unprompted, is that the IRFU’s contract negotiating position is weakened any time Schmidt selects an overseas player over a provincial player.
“We are incredibly keen to support the provinces. If we demonstrate to players that we are happy to pick players from outside of Ireland then potentially one of the big draw cards for keeping them here will be lifted and players will more likely go overseas.
“One of the thing that keeps them here is the player management and another thing is they know they will be closer to the front of the queue to play for their national team.”
Keatley, despite showing signs of improvement with a flawless kicking display in the New Year's Eve win over Connacht in atrocious Galway conditions, remains firmly behind Tyler Bleyendaal in the Munster outhalf pecking order.
In fact, Rassie Erasmus even excluded Keatley from the matchday 23 for the recent victory over Racing 92 in Paris with Rory Scannell – who travels to Edinburgh as a Munster substitute for Friday’s rescheduled Pro 12 game – acting as outhalf cover.
Last week Schmidt mentioned Scannell as a possible sub for Jackson after the Ireland management neglected to reveal that Keatley was included in their training camp all along.
Munster assistant coach Jacque Nienaber revealed that nugget of information.
Keatley’s pitch time in January was as a fullback replacement for Simon Zebo, a grand total of 18 minutes over two Champions Cup matches.
Madigan, Gareth Steenson and even JJ Hanrahan have seen more time at outhalf in recent European games for Bordeaux-Bégles, Exeter Chiefs and the Northampton Saints respectively.
“They haven’t gone away,” said Schmidt. “I have had some good conversations with Ian recently. He is not off the radar. We know we can whistle him in but we know during the Six Nations we play two matches and he would have to go back, we play one match and he would have to go back.
This lack of continuity “is a real frustration” Schmidt added.
“That’s the same for Marty. He was probably ahead of Tadhg Furlong in the Leinster hierarchy of tightheads when Marty left but Tadhg has come through. So has John Ryan and Finlay Bealham has played a lot, including coming off the bench against the All Blacks.
“It allows an opportunity for other people. This time last year nobody was talking about Joey Carbery. Unfortunately Joey has picked up an injury but before that he launched himself into the limelight. I very much doubt that would have happened if Ian Madigan was there.
“There are flip sides either way,” Schmidt conceded. “It’s not an ideal situation not to have every player who is Irish qualified on the island and immediately available.
“The ones who are playing overseas are available but it is a fluctuating availability.”
It is also worth noting that while the Keatley selection is mainly because he is a home based player, the 29-year-old is strongly rumoured to be joining a French club – Bayonne or La Rochelle – this summer.
Hanrahan is coming the other way, having signed a deal to rejoin Munster.
Earlier this week, Ireland assistant coach Simon Easterby also emphasised that Madigan has lost the 10 jersey at Bordeaux to 23-year-old New Zealander Simon Hickey.
Should Keatley be called on against Scotland it will be his fifth Ireland cap and first since the 14 points he kicked during the 26-3 victory over Italy in Rome in February 2015.
Another conversation is the recall for Tommy Bowe, who turns 33 later this month, and last appeared for Ireland against Argentina at the 2015 World Cup. Bowe's 30 tries in 72 Test matches appears sufficient, along with glimpses of form for Ulster since returning from his latest long term knee injury, to get the 23 jersey as Andrew Trimble struggles for fitness.
Donnacha Ryan missed out on consideration due to a medical knee injury so Iain Henderson starts ahead of Ultan Dillane.
IRELAND (v Scotland, Murrayfield, Saturday, 2.25pm): Rob Kearney; Keith Earls, Garry Ringrose, Robbie Henshaw, Simon Zebo; Paddy Jackson, Conor Murray; Jack McGrath, Rory Best (capt), Tadhg Furlong; Iain Henderson, Devin Toner; CJ Stander, Sean O'Brien, Jamie Heaslip.
Replacements: Niall Scannell, Cian Healy, John Ryan, Ultan Dillane, Josh van der Flier, Kieran Marmion, Ian Keatley, Tommy Bowe.
