What?
The Republic of Ireland welcome Greece to Dublin in the last home game of what has been a turgid Euro 2024 qualifying campaign. Might it be the last time we see Stephen Kenny in charge in a home competitive outing? More on that later.
Where & When?
Unlucky for some, maybe even Ireland, it’s on Friday October 13th, with a 7.45pm kick-off. As usual, the Aviva Stadium plays host.
Can I watch?
You certainly can. As always RTÉ will be televising the match, their coverage kicks off at 7pm on RTÉ 2. There will also be radio commentary on RTÉ 2FM starting at 6pm.
Ireland have been disappointing in this campaign, is there anything left to play for?
It has been a difficult few months from an Irish perspective. Two defeats to France and another to the Netherlands were probably to be expected, but the real killer was Friday’s return fixture. Back in June, an abject Ireland all but ended their automatic qualification hopes with a dismal showing in a 2-1 defeat to Greece in Athens. It was widely seen as the most disappointing performance of the Stephen Kenny era, with many believing it sealed the beleaguered manager’s fate with his contract up at the end of this qualifying campaign.
At present in Group C, Ireland sit in fourth on three points above only Gibraltar. France are runaway group leaders with a six-point cushion while the Netherlands are in second, occupying the other automatic qualifying spot. For Ireland to catch them, they need France to beat the Netherlands on Friday alongside a win of their own. That would leave Stephen Kenny’s side three points off the Dutch with two matches to play. They would then likely have to beat the Netherlands in Amsterdam in November, no tall order, and for other results to still go their way.
In other words, automatic qualification is incredibly unlikely.
However, a playoff based on Nations League ranking is also a possibility, albeit another unlikely one. Long story short, Ireland finished 26th in last year’s Nations League campaign. They were in League B and there are currently nine teams from that side of the draw ranked ahead of Ireland. If six of them secure automatic Euro 2024 qualification, Ireland can sneak a playoff. With three matches to go, only four currently are: Scotland, Serbia, Ukraine and Slovenia.
That’s one side of things, then there are all the countries from League A of the Nations League. If all 16 teams in that league qualify for Euro 2024 automatically, then the playoff spots for that side of the draw get dished out elsewhere. If that happens, as things stand Ireland would get a playoff. However, Wales and Poland are two League A sides currently out of the automatic slots, meaning Ireland need them to improve.
If you’re still with us, Ireland want as few upsets as possible in the remaining games, while also of course looking for wins of their own. Various results and permutations can go Ireland’s way, but the most straightforward manner of looking at it is, while results elsewhere could change this, as things stand, Ireland want Wales and Israel improve to reach the top two of their own groups, that would earn Stephen Kenny’s side a playoff. Easier said than done given Wales play Croatia on Sunday, while Israel’s fixtures are up in the air after conflict broke out the country over the weekend.
At present, Israel’s upcoming home match against Switzerland has been postponed while their following game away to Kosovo is still awaiting a decision on whether it can go ahead.
Is this it for Stephen Kenny?
The answer to that question has always been, depends who you ask. However, now more than ever it feels like the majority of those in the know believe he will not have his contract extended beyond this current campaign.
One thing that is for sure is that the Ireland squad stand behind their manager. Plenty of players have on many occasions passionately defended their boss in public, a stark contrast to the women’s side who never really came out to bat for Vera Pauw towards the end of her time in charge.
Would it be outside the realm of possibility that wins over Greece on Friday and Gibraltar next week, combined with some sort of impressive showing away to the Dutch in November, earn Kenny one last chance? Again, it’s unlikely, but difficult to rule out entirely.
Team news
Crucially, the first name on everyone’s lips these days, Evan Ferguson, is fit after missing last month’s pair of defeats to France and the Netherlands.
Elsewhere, James McClean has been left out despite starting against the Dutch, meaning he will not play again in a competitive home match for Ireland, barring a last minute injury. Just hours before the team news was announced last week, in what could well have been a calculated PR move, McClean and the FAI revealed that next month’s friendly at home to New Zealand will be his last game for his country.
Instead of McClean, left-sided defenders Liam Scales and Ryan Manning have been included, the former after a particularly good run of form with Celtic. Elsewhere on the defensive side of the ball, John Egan is out with an injury, while Caoimhín Kelleher won’t be in his usual role of backup to Gavin Bazunu, also due to injury. Bristol ‘keeper Max O’Leary replaces him with Mark Travers elevated into the number two role.
Further up the park, Mark Sykes, Mikey Johnston and Callum Robinson are all back in to bolster Ireland’s forward stocks. Hull City’s Aaron Connolly was initially named in the 24-man group, but another injury sees him miss out as Sammie Szmodics, who has been in fine goalscoring form for Blackburn, is a late call-up.
There is no room for Troy Parrott, who Kenny said he left out after he had minor surgery during the summer, or the in-form Andrew Moran who remains with the U21s. The final XI will be announced roughly an hour before kick-off.
Who are the favourites?
It’s marginal, but at present Ireland are the bookies’ very, very slight favourites.
What’s the weather forecast in Dublin?
Cloudy during the day with a few showers on Friday but these are expected to clear by the evening. The night could be a cold one, with Met Éireann saying it will be between three to seven degrees.
