On the face of it, it’s a good idea for Aer Lingus to launch a Dublin-Nashville service. After all, given the popularity of country music here there is little doubt there would, ordinarily, be strong demand from travellers flying from this part of the world to Tennessee’s main city to take in the honky tonks and music clubs of the US city. The Grand Ole Opry remains a favourite among both locals and tourists.
A whopping 71 per cent of adults in Ireland listen to country music, according to an Aer Lingus survey, while about 10 per cent of the wider Tennessee population claim Irish heritage.
Nashville International Airport will also act as a gateway to the wider US south.
It’s perhaps unfortunate then, that the route – launching on April 12th – comes at a time when US relations with Europe and the wider world are arguably at their lowest ebb in decades. Donald Trump’s policies – not just tariffs – have cratered many people’s previously favourable views of the country, while the economic chaos spurred by his tariffs is already hitting people’s willingness to spend money.
The assumption at this stage may be that travel to somewhere like New York may continue to hold up, but further south may become a more difficult proposition. Indeed, Delta Air Lines pulled its guidance on Wednesday citing the current climate, while Virgin Atlantic warned last month of a slowdown in travel from the US to the UK.
Nashville itself was a Democrat-supporting city in last year’s presidential election, but that was not the case for the wider state: Trump carried Tennessee with 64 per cent of the vote, and some 92 of Tennessee’s 95 counties backed him. If the talk of people trying to avoid so-called red states plays out, that will not help.
While it’s yet to show in the data, it seems clear that there is a slowdown in demand for travel between Europe and the US, even if we are yet to see that fully quantified.
How long Trump’s trade war continues will likely play a key role in the success of Dublin-Nashville and many other of the 22 Aer Lingus routes between this part of the world and the US. No doubt Aer Lingus parent IAG will be closely watching traffic on the new route.
