Finland will become Nato’s 31st member on Tuesday at a ceremony on Brussels, completing the fastest ratification process in the history of the defence alliance.
The accession comes after parliamentary elections in Finland on Sunday ended with gains for centre-right parties with a pro-Nato outlook and a mandate to curb public spending.
Finnish president Sauli Niinistö will attend a gathering of Nato foreign ministers on Tuesday in Brussels, alongside outgoing foreign minister Pekka Haavisto, to deposit Finland’s instrument of accession to the treaty.
“This is a historic week,” said Jens Stoltenberg, Nato secretary general. “It will be a good day for Finland’s security, for Nordic security and for Nato as a whole.”
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While Turkey holds out on Sweden’s ratification, it backed Finland’s application last Thursday. That allows the handover of all 30 member acceptance letters to US secretary of state Anthony Blinken in Brussels – rather than file them directly at the US State Department in Washington.
Given their fraught history with Russia, and a shared 1,300km border, traditionally neutral Finns were shocked by Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. A rapid swing towards Nato in public opinion saw Finland’s prime minister Sanna Marin push her traditional Nato-sceptic Social Democrats (SDP) to back accession.
She is now a caretaker leader after the SDP finished third in Sunday’s elections with 19.9 per cent of the vote and 43 seats. Its rise in support and gain of three seats was not enough to compensate for coalition allies’ losses.
“Congratulations to the winners of the elections. Democracy has spoken,” said the 37-year-old to her supporters.
Attention turns now to prime minister presumptive Petteri Orpo, leader of the centre-right National Coalition party (NCP), with 20.6 per cent of the vote and 48 seats in the 200-seat parliament.
Mr Orpo’s most likely coalition partner is the populist far-right Finns party, which campaigned on an anti-immigration platform to finish second with 20.1 per cent of the vote and 46 seats.
An NCP-Finns coalition with a third party is now the most likely option for a new government, with talks focused on immigration and austerity measures likely to take up to three months.
[ Sanna Marin concedes defeat in Finland election as SDP beaten into third placeOpens in new window ]
A national consensus on Nato accession kept defence issues largely out of the election and the NCP’s traditional pro-Nato stance means defence spending will not be subject to any post-election cutbacks.
Finland already meets key Nato rules, spending 2.03 per cent of its gross domestic product on security and defence. With new F-35 jets already on order for the air force, any new administration is likely to step up army reform and investment.
Defence analyst Henri Vanhanen predicts Finland will be active inside Nato – not just in securing the Baltic region but also in pressuring regional “free-riders” who spend and do less in the defence alliance.
“Finland is not going to set limits on Nato membership in terms of potential Nato presence on Finnish soil,” said Mr Vanhanen, research fellow at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs. “We understand Nato means obligations and Finland will be pushing for broader burden-sharing for all countries in the region.”
