With three parties, two of them newcomers, in contention to lead the next Dutch coalition government, polling shows there’s also a real possibility that newly toned-down far-right leader Geert Wilders could be kingmaker if he successfully lands his party in the top four.
The polls have been consistently showing the centre-right VVD, now led by Turkish-born Dilan Yesilgöz – who replaced Mark Rutte, when his government collapsed in August – with a growing lead that could translate into as many as 27 seats in the 150-seat parliament.
Just behind on around 25 seats, is New Social Contract (NSC), a party founded by independent MP Pieter Omtzigt, whose rigour in investigating a child benefits scandal brought down the third Rutte coalition and made him, say the polls, the country’s most trusted politician.
The other newcomer in the top three is an attempt to revive the Dutch Left, an amalgamation of Labour and GreenLeft led by former EU commissioner for climate action Frans Timmermans, at 62 the most popular of the leaders with 18- to 34-year-old voters. The party is polling around 23 seats.
Into the mix has come Mr Wilders, whose traditional anti-Islam rhetoric has been notable by its absence and whose more amenable debating style appears designed to make him a pragmatic addition to any centre-right coalition negotiated after polling closes on Wednesday evening.
Challenged about this apparent new moderation, Mr Wilders said at the weekend that cutting immigration, improving healthcare and securing the future for low-income households had become higher priorities than his traditional byword of “de-Islamification” of the Netherlands.
It’s a tactic that has seen his Freedom Party polling at around 20 seats, up two in recent weeks – in a highly fragmented contest between 26 parties in which no more than four are expected to win more than ten seats each.
Not alone that, but – according to TV current affairs programme Eenvandaag – the one issue that unites both right and left of the electorate is a belief in the need for tighter immigration. Typically, those on the right want absolute limits. The left want a system that benefits genuine asylum seekers.
So Mr Wilders believes he can rehabilitate himself by focusing on immigrants in general and no longer just Muslims, suggests a sceptical Yesilgöz – although, with 48 hours to polling, she hasn’t absolutely ruled out working with him were the seat numbers to add up.
“In this campaign, the real Geert Wilders has yet to stand up,” she declared.
Wilders claimed his place in the top four due in no small part to the failure of the Eurosceptic “farmer-citizen movement”, BBB, led by former agriculture journalist Caroline van der Plas, to fulfil the promise of its remarkable outing in provincial elections last March when it won in all 12 regions.
Despite the thorny issues of immigration and housing in particular, the Netherlands is doing well: unemployment is below 4 per cent, inflation is slowing, national debt is less than half of GDP, and it’s on track to meet its 2030 carbon emissions reduction goals.
With Mark Rutte tipped to follow Jens Stoltenberg as Nato secretary general, the problems he’s bequeathed are largely those of relative prosperity.
