The Dutch electorate has surged to the right, returning Geert Wilders and his Freedom Party as the largest in the country with 25 per cent of the vote in Wednesday’s election – although he may yet find it difficult to translate his win into a workable coalition that can return him as prime minister.
After a decade on the sidelines of power, a toned-down Mr Wilders consolidated his lead over the last week of the campaign to take 35 seats in the 150-seat parliament, leaving the Labour-GreenLeft alliance led by former EU commissioner Frans Timmermans trailing on a second-best 25.
With all votes counted by lunchtime on Thursday, the liberal VVD – the party of caretaker premier Mark Rutte, now led by Turkish immigrant Dilan Yesilgöz – is in third place on 24 seats, down a punishing 10 seats for failing to listen to the public mood on immigration, the same issue that sank Mr Rutte’s last government in August.
Likewise, New Social Contract (NSC), the party founded by independent MP Pieter Omtzigt, ended in fourth place on 20 seats despite the fact that just over a week ago, before Mr Omtzigt prevaricated over whether or not he wanted to become prime minister, it was tipped to top the poll.
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The other big loser of the election was the single-issue “farmer-citizen” party of Carolien van der Plas, which increased its single seat to just seven despite Ms van der Plas’s insistence that the party would take at least 20. In the event it plunged to sixth place behind centrist D66 on 10 seats
There was an immediate congratulatory chorus from leaders of the European right, including Hungary’s Viktor Orban, who hailed “winds of change”, and Marine Le Pen in France, who described Mr Wilders’s win – which included poll-topping results in Rotterdam and The Hague – as “spectacular”.
Yet The immediate problem for Mr Wilders (60) is his lack of potential coalition partners.
Under the pragmatic Dutch system the “winning” party has the first chance to form a government. If it fails it must make way for the second largest and so on until a successful combination is found.
Ms Yesilgöz of the VVD has followed her predecessor, Mr Rutte, and said she will not serve in any coalition with Mr Wilders because of his anti-immigrant views. Similarly, Mr Wilders would be highly unlikely to find common ground with Labour-GreenLeft. The same is more likely than not to be true of Mr Omtzigt’s NSC.
On the other hand a six-party centrist coalition between Labour/GreenLeft on 25 seats, VVD on 24, NSC on 20, D66 on 10, the Christian Democrats on five and Christian Union on three could yield a solid parliamentary majority of 87 seats – where 76 is a majority. This means that lengthy coalition talks continuing at least into early next year – while Mr Rutte remains as caretaker prime minister – are virtually inevitable.
As well as a tougher line on immigration, a hard-right coalition involving Mr Wilders can be expected to be Eurosceptic at the very least – as is the case with the farmers’ party BBB – committed to reducing payments to Brussels and placing expansion on hold. It might also attempt to soften controversial plans to reduce livestock herds and slash fertiliser use, both of which are vehemently opposed by farmers as part of the outgoing Mr Rutte government’s programme to reduce CO² emissions.
Mr Wilders has said the Netherlands should stop providing arms and ammunition to Ukraine.
There’s been a clear echo of “Netherlands First” about Mr Wilders’ response to his win. “We can no longer be ignored! We are going to govern,” he told delighted supporters. We have to think about our own people now. Borders closed. Zero asylum seekers.”
