In a busy Stockholm wine bar on Thursday night, friends Anna and Charlotte raised €11 glasses of wine to Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Minutes earlier, the teetotal Turkish president announced he had signed off on Sweden’s membership of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (Nato). His signature ended a 20-month political drama that, like many long-running dramas, was tipping into farce.
“Erdogan really squeezed the last juice out of the Swedish orange,” joked Charlotte.
Neutral since the Napoleonic wars, Sweden’s self-image as a European peace power was shattered by Russia’s invasion on Ukraine in February 2022. Three months later it applied to join Nato, previously a taboo, but Turkey used its national veto to extract a long list of demands. In particular, it forced Stockholm to crack down on Sweden-resident Kurds whom Ankara views as terrorists.
As talks flagged and months dragged, Washington turned the tables on Ankara and linked its €18 million F-16 fighter jet order to Sweden’s Nato membership.
After nearly two tempestuous years of false hope and occasional panic, thin-lipped political thanks on Thursday was echoed by Anna in the wine bar: “We have been a small ball on a large pitch.”
Restless Swedish eyes flit now to Hungary, the final Nato holdout, which appears in no rush to realise its previously theoretical backing of Sweden’s membership bid.
Prime minister Viktor Orban has promised a parliamentary vote “at the earliest possible opportunity” which, according to the parliament’s sitting calendar, will be next month at the earliest.
Parliamentary speaker Laszlo Kover, a close Orban ally, does not see “any urgency” for an earlier, special sitting.
Finland begs to differ. Since it slipped under the Nato defensive shield in April 2023, after 11 months in the waiting room, it has viewed Sweden as a worrying grey area in the now all-Nato Baltic region.
Looking east, meanwhile, Finland has closed all checkpoints along its 1,340km border with Russia until February, accusing its neighbour of funnelling asylum seekers to the frontier without documents.
Since last August, official figures show some 1,300 asylum seekers arrived via the eastern border. On Thursday another 18 people from the Middle East were detained crossing the forest border on foot.
Moscow denies any involvement and on Wednesday ripped up a 12-year-old bilateral border agreement dedicated to “friendly relations” and “long-term cross-border co-operation”.
Weeks after Vladimir Putin threatened “problems for Finland”, the Russian leader is very present in this weekend’s Finish presidential election.
On the nine-candidate ballot paper, four front runners have a chance of succeeding Sauli Niinistö after two terms as president, though a run-off is very likely on February 11th.
A final YLE public television poll placed centre-right former prime minister Alexander Stubb in first place followed by Green-backed former minister for foreign affairs Pekka Haavisto. Far-right candidate Jussi Halla-aho is third-placed, but closing in on the top two, while Olli Rehn, a former central bank governor and European commissioner, is trailing.
Unlike Ireland, Finland’s presidency goes beyond a representative role: as foreign policy head and commander-in-chief of the armed forces, the president represents Finland at Nato meetings.
Leading the race seven years after quitting politics for good, the media-savvy Stubb has credited – or blamed – Russia for his return. “I felt strongly that this is a new age in Finnish foreign policy and perhaps I could throw my hat into the ring once again,” Stubb said.
In interviews he has demanded greater military support from Europe for Ukraine and insisted that Finland’s traditional preparedness – backed by Nato mutual defence – means his country has “nothing to fear” from its larger neighbour.
Four points behind Stubb in polls, Haavisto has pitched himself as a safe pair of hands: the 65 year-old worked alongside the outgoing president to shepherd Finland into Nato with minimum fuss. This is the 65-year-old career diplomat’s third run for this office and, if elected, he would be Finland’s first openly gay president.
High overall turnout is expected on Sunday, given a record 44 per cent of Finns have already voted during a campaign focused on policy continuity, security questions and Finland’s new Nato role.
Henri Vanhanen, a policy analyst at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, said: “All candidates agree on supporting Ukraine, emphasising Finnish defence capabilities and preparing for difficult times with Russia.”
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