In this Christmas season, Polish prime minister Donald Tusk has had more high-profile visitors than Mary and Joseph back in their Bethlehem days.
A year has passed since the 67-year-old Pole returned from his top Brussels job to secure a tight general election victory for his centrist-liberal alliance. Now settled into his second term as prime minister, his job is getting more interesting — and high profile — by the day.
With France and Germany on extended political pit stops, Tusk finds himself in the EU spotlight just as Poland inherits the six-month rotating EU presidency next month.
“It is almost banal to say it but there is a power vacuum in the EU with France and Germany, usually seen as leaders, in deep political crisis,” said Michal Matlak, a Polish-born fellow at the Central European University’s Democracy Institute. “Tusk as a former European Council president is naturally destined to shape European politics more as a result.”
After a year of working to restore the rule of law, resolving an eight-year standoff with Brussels, Tusk promised this week to play a leading role in “winter talks” to resolve the Ukraine-Russia war.
“I really want Poland to be a country that is not only present but also which sets the tone for decisions which should bring us security and protect Polish interests,” said Tusk.
He repeated that message of growing international responsibility and robust national interest — the new Tusk sound — after Thursday’s meeting French president Emmanuel Macron.
Responding to questions about sending European peacekeeping troops to Ukraine as a security guarantee in the case of ceasefire, Tusk insisted there were no plans — for now at least. He added: “Decisions concerning Poland will be made in Warsaw and only in Warsaw.” Macron, echoing his Polish host, pushed the need for a united European front — something Warsaw has little hope of with German chancellor Olaf Scholz.
Polish officials remain furious with Germany for imposing police checks a year go on their common border. They mock Scholz’s bilateral phone diplomacy with Vladimir Putin and remember not being invited to Ukraine talks in Berlin last October.
German officials, meanwhile, were caught off-guard by Tusk’s decision to suspend asylum procedures on its border with Belarus, something Warsaw says is a response to migrants being trafficked there as part of a Russian “hybrid war”.
As if to highlight the chill with Berlin, Tusk gave a warm — and public — welcome on Tuesday to Christian Democratic Union (CDU) leader Friedrich Merz. The delighted chancellor hopeful, in advance of a snap election in February, responded in kind, calling Tusk “a great stroke of luck for Poland, but also a great stroke of luck for Germany”.
Tusk may bring a stroke of luck as part of any European welcoming committee for the incoming Trump administration.
For one thing Poland’s defence spending — more than twice the Nato minimum — could placate Trump, soften his threats to withdraw US forces from Europe; or even deal directly with Moscow on a Ukraine peace deal.
The Tusk administration has repeatedly stressed the need for conciliatory language and a constructive working relationship with the Trump team. But Warsaw is not hanging about either on security.
Last weekend Tusk was on the ground to launch the first stage of Poland’s €2.4 billion “Eastern Shield”: a 700km frontier of concrete barriers and steel tank traps along borders with the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad and Belarus.
“The better the Polish border is protected, the greater the guarantee of peace,” said Tusk.
His tough talk on borders and migration, echoing some of his national conservative predecessors, has disappointed some Polish voters and surprised some EU allies.
But Warsaw observers say European expectations of Tusk need to be tempered by the domestic political realities he faces in 2025.
Top of the list is the election, in May or June, of a new Polish president. This is an influential role with key defence and security competences as well powers to block legislation.
Ramping up security rhetoric is part of a Tusk plan for his party’s pick, Warsaw mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, to emerge victorious. Failure to secure the presidency would hobble the Polish government.
With Poland already part of Europe’s growing hardline mainstream on migration issues, expect a similarly robust Tusk line on the EU’s Mercosur trade deal with South American countries. Like Ireland, Poland fears it will disadvantage its crucial farming sector.
Helping Tusk to boost Polish influence across the EU are second-term foreign minister Radek Sikorski and trusted Tusk aide, Piotr Serafin. As EU budget commissioner, he will boost Poland’s long-term clout in discussions over EU finances and domestic debates over the cost benefits of membership.
“Tusk will be active in international politics but will make an effort to portray himself as fighting for Polish national interests on this stage,” said Mateusz Mazzini, a Warsaw-based political commentator and television host. “There’s a lot of wishful thinking around Europe for Tusk as a liberal white knight, but such expectations haven’t filtered through here. Poles remain sceptical towards anything like self-praise.”
