Nerves are on edge in Germany’s centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) as controversial coalition discussions have seen their opinion poll lead over the far-right melt away to just one percentage point.
CDU leader Friedrich Merz has yet to secure the chancellery but a new Forsa/n-tv poll showed his party on just 25 per cent support – down 3.5 per cent on its February 23rd election result.
The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), meanwhile, has surged three points on its election result to take 24 per cent in the poll published on Thursday.
If Germany’s election was held now, the poll indicates the CDU would not have secured a parliamentary majority with its likely coalition partner in the centre-left Social Democratic Party.
‘I’m here! Can you hear me?’ One family’s story of death in Gaza
Marine Le Pen’s presidential ambition may be in ruins but court verdict does not end her influence
Leipzig stays true to Bach, 340 years on
‘No one will be left behind’: Ukraine struggles to return Mariupol defenders from Russia three years after port siege
The unpopularity of Mr Merz appears a key element in the support slide, arising, in particular, from his U-turn on campaign promises to embrace debt-financed spending on infrastructure and defence.
“The CDU did not keep what it promised before the election and some disappointed people have gone to the AfD,” said Herbert Blinkert of the Insa polling agency.
Mr Merz appears to be a particular liability for his party, with the percentage of those polled who say they do not trust him rising from 60 per cent in December to 70 per cent now.
Just 21 per cent of voters think the CDU is best placed to tackle Germany’s political and economic challenges, followed by the AfD at 12 per cent. Meanwhile, nine per cent believe the SPD, of outgoing chancellor Olaf Scholz, is capable.
Experts have expressed alarm at the surge in AfD support, fearing it leaves any new CDU/SPD coalition on the back foot before it even takes office.
[ Fighting for her political life, Marine Le Pen goes on the offensiveOpens in new window ]
Some suggest voters are responding negatively to leaked coalition agreement drafts with little appetite for fundamental reform of bureaucracy, education, federalism or even migration policy.
“The CDU and SPD seem to be primarily concerned with protecting their own voter clientele, instead of getting necessary reforms under way,” said Prof Marcel Fratzscher of Germany’s DIW economic think tank.
Even before coalition talks began, SPD officials secured key campaign goals including pension stability and major infrastructure spending. In the latest round of talks, it has pushed back against CDU efforts to tighten up migration policy.
That has created unrest among CDU backbenchers, who accuse their party leaders of yielding too much to the SPD.
Though other opinion polls suggest a three- and five-point gap to the CDU, AfD co-leader Alice Weidel was jubilant at the record poll numbers.
“Citizens voted for fundamental political change on February 23rd,” she wrote on X, “and not broken election promises from Merz or the SPD’s ‘more of the same’.”
