Talks between Tehran and Washington on Iran’s nuclear programme are set to begin on Saturday in Oman, with Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi and US envoy Steve Witkoff leading their country’s delegations.
Differences remain between both sides. Araghchi has said the talks will be “indirect” with Oman mediating. The US has said the talks are to be “direct”.
According to Tehran, the talks will exclusively address limiting Iran’s nuclear programme in exchange for the lifting of sanctions.
In a sign of the difficulties ahead, the US on Wednesday issued fresh sanctions targeting Iran, two days after president Donald Trump announced talks on the nuclear programme.
The US treasury department imposed penalties on five Iran-based entities and one person based in Iran for their support of its nuclear programme.
Iran and the four members of its Axis of Resistance have suffered major reverses over the past 18 months. Israel’s October 2024 strikes on Iran’s missile sites have diminished its defences, Israeli attacks have crippled Hizbullah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, Iraqi paramilitaries have agreed to disarm, and the US has hammered Yemen’s Houthis.
While these reverses have weakened Iran’s negotiating position, its nuclear programme has advanced considerably since May 2018, when Trump scuppered the three-year-old, six-party deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and reimposed sanctions. As the other five other signatories to the plan -the UK, France, China, Russia and Germany – could not provide sanctions relief, Iran began gradually breaching JCPOA terms.
While abiding by the JCOPA, Iran carried out nuclear research at one facility, enriched uranium to 3.67 per cent for use in power stations and limited its stockpile to 300kg. Stocks of medium enriched uranium were limited, and it relied on slow centrifuges for enrichment. Iran also accepted intrusive monitoring and inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
Since May 2019, Iran has enriched uranium to 20 and 60 per cent – closer to the 90 per cent required for a warhead. Its stockpile is more than 30 times the level allowed by the JCPOA, and advanced centrifuges have been introduced and increased beyond limits set by the deal. The IAEA said it has been prevented from monitoring Iran’s nuclear activities since February 2021.
Due to the advances in its nuclear programme, Iran cannot be expected to return to the JCPOA, and a new agreement will have to be reached.
By September 2024, the IAEA estimated that if Iran enriched its stock of 60 per cent to 90 per cent, it could, in theory, produce four nuclear bombs within a few months.
However, experts argue Iran would have to master weaponisation and carry out tests before creating a viable weapon and building an arsenal large enough to deter attacks from the US and Israel.
In 2003, Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei banned the production and use of weapons of mass destruction, but this policy could change if the regime is threatened by external powers. This makes it imperative for the talks to succeed.
“If the talks are not successful,” Trump has said, “I think Iran is going to be in great danger.”
