There is little appetite in Israel for a major escalation in the Gaza conflict.
Opposition to the new offensive being planned by the government, however, stems mainly from fears that it will endanger the lives of the 20 or so hostages in Gaza still believed to be alive, and entail the call-up of tens of thousands of reservists for months of additional military service.
The anticipated carnage and suffering to the local population is barely a factor.
Images of the destruction inflicted on Gaza by Israel’s war on the enclave are shown on Israeli television but are not given prominence or accompanied by critical commentary. Pictures of the dead and wounded, or hungry children, are rare although are readily accessible on foreign TV stations or via the internet.
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The overwhelming consensus in Israel is still that Hamas is to blame for everything that has happened in Gaza since the militant group’s attack on southern Israel on October 7th, 2023 .
“What did they expect after the atrocities they carried out?” is a common sentimente, and Israelis accuse Palestinian militant groups of using the local population as human shields, noting the numerous instances that gunmen have operated from schools, medical facilities, mosques and designated humanitarian zones.
The phrase that “there are no innocents in Gaza” is also widely heard. To back the claim, Israelis cite the widespread public support among the Gaza population, and in the West Bank, for the Hamas-led attack as proof of this, although support for Hamas among Palestinians has dropped significantly over the past year.
The crowds who cheered the militants returning to Gaza with hostages on October 7th and the defilement of the bodies of dead hostages is also mentioned frequently, as are eyewitness accounts from hostages who were ordered by their captives to whisper for fear local residents would discover their whereabouts and carry out a lynching.
Israeli governments have always been wary of launching wars that lack a broad-based public consensus but, in sharp contrast to the attack that was launched on Gaza after October 7th, a further escalation at this juncture now lacks such a consensus.
It is expected that thousands of army reservists will refuse to report for another stint in Gaza. Opponents of prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu accuse him of deliberately prolonging the war because far-right members of his coalition have threatened to quit the government if there is another ceasefire. A never-ending war also delays the formation of a commission of inquiry into the failures surrounding October 7th, for which Netanyahu continues to deny any culpability.
A significant majority of Israelis now oppose the government’s policy on Gaza and believe releasing the hostages is more important than defeating Hamas, even at the cost of ending the war. A survey last week commissioned by the Hostages and Missing Families Forum found that 84 per cent of Israelis believe there can be no victory in Gaza without the return of all the hostages.
According to a poll last month by the Israel Democracy Institute, prioritisation of the hostages has been increasing steadily over time, with 68 per cent now saying the return of the hostages is the most important war aim as opposed to 25 per cent who prioritised toppling Hamas. Almost half − 49 per cent − of Israelis do not think achieving both war goals simultaneously is possible.
The political echelon over recent weeks has made it clear that the hostages are no longer its top priority. “There are another up to 24 alive, 59 total, and we want to return the living and the dead. It’s a very important goal,” said Netanyahu. But he added, “The war has a supreme goal, and the supreme goal is victory over our enemies, and this we will achieve.”
In contrast, Israel Defense Forces chief of staff Lt Gen Eyal Zamir has said on a number of occasions that returning the hostages is the IDF’s top priority.
