Seven years after the Brexit referendum, the proportion of Britons who want to rejoin the EU has climbed to its highest levels since 2016, according to a new survey.
Both Britons and Europeans also think the UK’s return to the EU is becoming more likely, while British respondents are more optimistic about the bloc’s future – to the extent of trusting the European Commission more than their own government.
Data from YouGov’s latest Brexit tracker survey found that, excluding those who said they would not vote or did not know, 58.2 per cent of people in Britain would now vote to rejoin.
The percentage has risen more or less consistently since a post-referendum low of 47 per cent in early 2021.
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The survey also found Europeans are a lot less likely to think other countries would follow Britain’s example.
Asked whether they would vote to remain in the EU or leave in a Brexit-style referendum, 62 per cent of respondents in France and 63 per cent in Italy, which are traditionally among the least enthusiastic EU member states, said they would vote to stay.
Across most of the countries surveyed, support for continued EU membership has now dropped back to levels it enjoyed before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which sparked a strong surge in pro-European sentiment, the YouGov figures showed.
Elsewhere in the EU, 87 per cent of respondents in Spain said last month they would choose to remain, along with 79 per cent in Denmark, 70 per cent in Sweden and 69 per cent in Germany.
A record proportion of respondents in Britain also think other countries are now unlikely to follow its example and leave the EU in the next decade – 42 per cent said it was unlikely, up from 26 per cent three years ago, while 40 per cent said it was likely, down from 58 per cent.
EU member states showed a similar trend, with 45 per cent of respondents in France saying they thought another EU-exit was likely, compared to 55 per cent in February 2020. In Germany the figures were 36 per cent (down from 42 per cent) and in Denmark 29 per cent (down from 41 per cent).
While sentiment towards EU membership has shifted significantly in Britain since the referendum, a slim majority of respondents (51 per cent) say they still think it is unlikely Britain will rejoin the EU at some future point in the future.
Again, however, that figure has been falling more or less consistently – it stood at 62 per cent two years ago – and 29 per cent of respondents in Britain told YouGov in April they think it is likely the country will rejoin – up from 21 per cent in early 2021.
In the EU, people in Italy (61 per cent) and France (54 per cent) were less confident that Britain would rejoin, with Denmark (43 per cent) and Sweden (49 per cent) more positive. In all countries, a higher proportion said they thought Britain’s return was likely than did in 2021.
British confidence in the future of the EU has also climbed markedly since just after the referendum. For the first time on record, more British respondents (41 per cent) said they were optimistic about the bloc’s prospects than were pessimistic (36 per cent).
There was less optimism, however, about Brexit’s impact on Britain’s economy. About 58 per cent of UK respondents said in April that they thought the country’s exit from the EU would have a negative impact – up sharply from 50 per cent two years ago.
Perhaps most startlingly, the data showed respondents in Britain are now also more likely – albeit by a narrow margin – to say they that trust the European Commission (25 per cent) more than they trust their own government (24 per cent).
Trust in the British government has crashed from a high of 40 per cent in April 2021 – just after the UK’s successful early Covid vaccine rollout, and as lockdown restrictions were being eased – while trust in the commission has crept up since 2016. – Guardian