It was believed in Westminster that Monday’s top-level summit in London between the UK and the European Union would be held at Lancaster House, a mansion beside Green Park that is often used by Britain’s Foreign Office to host grand diplomatic get-togethers.
Britain’s prime minister Keir Starmer wanted the meeting to bring a “reset” in relations with the EU. What better place to cement a reset than the gilded rooms of a stately mansion? For an extra dash of diplomatic conviviality, Lancaster House also includes the UK’s state wine cellar.
However, it now seems the meetings between the prime minister and European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, as well as a few top officials from both sides, will mostly be held in the more workman-like surroundings of Downing Street.
Why the change of venue? Although Starmer covets the economic opportunities of a far-reaching deal with the EU, he is also wary of the domestic political threat that warmer engagement with the bloc could pose for his Labour government, especially with Brexit-supporting voters in working-class heartlands.
“The decision to hold the summit in Downing Street speaks to a desire to keep it low key, as does the reluctance to talk up the chances of an ambitious deal,” say researchers from UK in a Changing Europe, an academic think tank at King’s College London.
Barely two-and-a-half weeks after his party got a kicking in English local elections from Nigel Farage’s anti-EU outfit, Reform UK, Starmer is mindful of any suggestion he is cuddling up to Brussels or undermining Brexit. A red carpet event at Lancaster House could fuel that perception.
Going into the weekend, both sides were still wrangling over unresolved issues such as fishing rights, defence pacts and a youth mobility scheme. If those issues are not resolved by Monday, the summit could produce only a wafer-thin deal.
For both sides, the risk of failure is too great to ramp up the rhetoric by trumpeting a breakthrough too soon. Sources in London and in Brussels, however, seem quietly confident that a significant deal can be achieved. If it happens, expect both sides to shout it from the rooftops.
The summit, which will also be attended by European Council president António Costa and the bloc’s foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, is the first leader-level summit between the UK and the institution of the EU since Brexit. There will be no other national leaders present.
In the weeks leading up to the summit, Starmer has cited the importance of negotiating quietly.
“When we started this process, the president of the commission and I agreed we wouldn’t do megaphone diplomacy,” he said this week. “We wouldn’t go running to the nearest microphone to make our respective arguments and criticisms. Because of that we’ve made good progress.”
The EU side has also placed an emphasis on discretion. Details about the progress of negotiations have been tightly controlled to prevent leaks to the media.
Diplomats from the 27 EU member states have been instructed to leave their mobile phones outside the door during briefings from commission officials on the state of play. The number of people allowed inside the room during these sessions – aimed at sounding out national governments – have also been heavily restricted.
On the British side, much of the pre-summit negotiations were handled by Starmer’s “EU sherpa” Michael Ellam, a former adviser to the last Labour prime minister, Gordon Brown. British sources say Ellam was picked for the role due to his firm yet calm, non-confrontational approach, as Starmer seeks to strike a better tone with the EU compared to his immediate predecessors.
European diplomatic sources confirmed that Ellam’s appointment has indeed helped relations. EU sources also said they had underestimated just how much EU institutional knowledge had been lost in Whitehall since Brexit. It has taken Labour 10 months in government to build it up again.
One of the main items on the agenda is a security and defence partnership between the EU and UK, seen as essential for both sides in an era of Russia’s power-flexing. The UK side is especially keen to strike an EU defence deal because it would be easy to explain its rationale to a Brexit-weary British public.
Sources in Brussels say a defence deal is also sought by central and eastern European nations closest to the Russian threat. France, however, is adamant that British defence companies should be largely locked out of a €150 billion European rearmament fund, which has proved to be a sticking point. Britain’s defence secretary, John Healey, has indicated Britain is prepared to contribute to the funds to allow British companies to gain access to contracts.
Despite the wrangling, both sides expect a deal to be done and for a security and defence partnership to be the centrepiece of a summit agreement.
Ireland and a few other states, such as Belgium and the Netherlands, want to extend access to British fishing waters for EU boats, beyond a cliff edge approaching next year. Starmer’s government wants to offer a short extension, while the EU wants a longer one of perhaps five years.
Some EU states wanted to link the fisheries issue to a defence pact, but eastern states reject this. That view is reflected in recent comments from Kallas, known for her hawkish stance on Russia. A former prime minister of Estonia, she has said she does not believe a dispute over fishing rights should hold up a wider EU-UK deal.
A big aim from the EU side is agreement on a youth mobility scheme to allow European students and other young people the right to study and work in the UK. Starmer’s government is nervous, however, of anything that gives his domestic political opponents ammunition to suggest he is getting soft on immigration. The EU also wants its students to pay cheaper domestic tuition fee rates at British universities, which Starmer is pushing against.
A deal on youth mobility is seen as possible, but not certain – if it happens then it means the summit went well overall. There are also talks over a carbon emissions, the energy market and food standards, which may also be addressed in any final text.
There is frustration in London with the EU coming back with last-minute requests for more British concessions. Meanwhile, it is understood the UK government has been trying to go around the commission to lobby national governments directly in recent days, which has irked some Brussels-based officials.
One former EU diplomat, who was involved in negotiations during the UK’s exit from the union, said Starmer had not quite “put the cursor in the right place” on the reset he seeks. Some in the EU wanted Labour to be more ambitious.
For Starmer, however, the domestic political risks of being seen as too ambitious with the EU are all too real.
Delicate negotiations will continue throughout the weekend as both sides take it to the wire.
