As America’s electoral map turned red on Wednesday morning and the outcome became certain, allies and adversaries alike put on a brave face at the prospect of Donald Trump’s return to the White House. Emmanuel Macron promised to work “with your convictions and mine with respect and ambition” while Volodymyr Zelenskiy praised Trump’s “decisive leadership”.
Swaggering, disruptive and capricious during his first term, Trump promises to be bolder in foreign policy during his second, trampling more heavily over diplomatic norms. Driven by a more committed, radical and ideologically driven team of advisers on trade, defence and diplomacy, the next Trump administration could transform his country’s relationship with the rest of the world.
China
Beijing is braced for a trade war with Washington if Trump follows through on his threat to impose a blanket 60 per cent tariff on Chinese imports. The relationship between the world’s two most powerful countries deteriorated sharply during his first term in office and his next administration is likely to include some of Washington’s most hawkish voices on China.
Beijing will retaliate against Trump’s new tariffs, targeting politically sensitive goods such as agricultural products so that the stand-off will hurt both sides economically. But it could end with a trade deal on terms that reflect the relative strength of the American economy at a time when China is struggling.
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Trump’s suggestion that Taiwan should pay the US for its defence has unnerved some on the self-governing island who fear that he could make a deal over their heads with Xi Jinping, a leader for whom he has expressed admiration. But containing China and limiting its rise as an economic, technological and military power is now a bipartisan policy in Washington and Trump is likely to drive it onwards.
Ukraine
Trump has promised to end the war in Ukraine, claiming he could broker a peace deal between Zelenskiy and Vladimir Putin within 24 hours. His vice-president elect JD Vance suggested that an agreement could see a demilitarised zone along the current battle lines and Ukraine retaining its sovereignty but effectively ceding territory to Russia and pledging to stay out of Nato.
Some in Moscow doubt that a dealmaker like Trump would offer such a deal without a price and he hinted at a broader strategy in an interview with Tucker Carlson last week.
“The one thing you never want to happen is you never want Russia and China uniting,” he said.
“We united them because of the oil. We united them. Biden united them. It’s a shame, the stupidity of what they’ve done. I’m going to have to un-unite them and I think I can do that too.”
Prising Moscow away from Beijing would be difficult but some close to the Kremlin would like to switch partners if it meant the end of western sanctions and a return to their “common European home”.
European Union
Abandoning Ukraine or forcing Kyiv into an unequal peace deal would sit uneasily with European governments that have portrayed Russia’s war of aggression as an existential threat. But even with its sharply increased defence budgets and an arms industry operating at full power, Europe cannot sustain Ukraine’s war effort for long without American support.
A rapprochement between Washington and Moscow would present the EU with a great strategic dilemma but a more immediate challenge will come from Trump’s trade policy. The US is the biggest export market for EU goods and the threatened 10 per cent tariff would hurt European producers.
Europe’s conversation about strategic autonomy is currently focused on boosting defence spending but Trump’s actions could trigger a more expansive examination of the EU’s strategic interests and the role of the transatlantic alliance. His support for far-right forces in Europe could also offer centrists in western Europe a self-interested reason to look again at that alliance.
Middle East
Trump’s relationship with Binyamin Netanyahu has had its ups and downs and they did not speak for a number of years after the Israeli prime minister congratulated Joe Biden on his election victory in 2020. But they have recently reconciled and Trump has offered full-throated support for Israel’s military actions in Gaza and Lebanon without echoing even the feeble calls for restraint that have come from the Biden administration.
Trump did suggest to Netanyahu in August that he should “get your victory” and end the killing but he has also said that a ceasefire would give Hamas a chance to regroup. And if Israel decides to escalate its conflict with Iran, Trump has offered no sign that he would try to restrain it.
Climate change
Trump does not believe in human-caused climate change and he has championed more drilling for oil and gas while calling for regulations limiting emissions to be rolled back. His election heralds an increase in America’s greenhouse gas emissions, cuts to climate change research funding and the abandonment of any leading role in the global fight against climate change.
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