August is turning into September and the pace of economic activity is set to quicken, as it always does. Traditionally, this brings a flurry of deals in the housing market, as sellers unleash the properties they’ve been hoarding over the summer months and buyers return from their holidays with an eye on finding a new home for Christmas. If this year, with its higher borrowing costs and creeping global economic worries, is going to be different, we will soon find out.
The first and most obvious thing to watch will be prices. The latest Central Statistics Office data shows that while residential prices across the State were still growing on an annual basis in June, it was at a much reduced rate of 2.2 per cent, well below inflation. And in Dublin, where valuations are highest, prices fell that month at the fastest annual rate in nearly three years. Nobody can say for sure where prices will go next but we can note that, on the demand side, the available indicators point to robustness, if not stratospheric craziness.
[ Dublin house prices now falling at sharpest rate in almost three yearsOpens in new window ]
[ UK house prices drop by most since 2009Opens in new window ]
Mortgage figures from the Banking and Payments Federation this week showed a solid monthly increase in the value of mortgage approvals for home purchases in July, a good time of year to get the green light for a loan if you plan an autumn purchase. First-time buyers were leading the charge in the numbers, with the value of approvals in this part of the market up by close to 30 per cent on the year. Goodbody pointed out that within this, the average value of a first-timer mortgage is continuing to grow, but the pace of this growth is slowing. This corresponds with wider house price trends, the broker noted.
The other thing to be observed this autumn will be how realistic asking prices are when it comes to agreeing a deal. Davy crunched some numbers on this last week, estimating that residential transactions in June and July were settled at about 2 per cent and 2.3 per cent above the asking price respectively. The broker noted that this premium was down from between 5 and 6 per cent for the same months last year, but up from 1 per cent in early 2023. This points to “renewed impetus” in the market, Davy said.
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And now, we wait.
