House price inflation rises to 2.9% despite impact of higher borrowing costs

CSO figures show prices in Dublin, which had been declining, rose by 0.9% year on year in November

House prices across the State rose at an annual rate of 2.9 per cent in November, up from a rate of 2.2 per cent the previous month, as the market defied the dampening impact of higher borrowing costs.

The latest residential property price index, compiled by the Central Statistics Office (CSO), also showed that prices in Dublin, which had been declining, rose by 0.9 per cent year on year in November while prices outside Dublin were up by 4.4 per cent.

The State’s property market had slowed significantly since a pandemic-driven surge in 2020 and 2021 on the back of 10 consecutive interest rate rises from the European Central Bank, which have made it more expensive for buyers to borrow.

However, the Government’s help-to-buy schemes have fuelled activity particularly with first-time buyer segment of the market.

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While headline inflation for the market as a whole is less than 3 per cent, the cost of new dwellings, which are predominantly bought by first-time purchasers, rose by over 10 per cent in the third quarter, the CSO said.

The latest figures indicate that prices increased by 0.8 per cent month on month in November and have now risen for sixth consecutive months.

Buyers paid a median or middle price of €325,000 for a home in the 12 months to November, the latest figures show.

The Dublin region had the highest median price (€440,000) while within the Dublin region, Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown had the highest median price (€622,000), and South Dublin and Fingal both had the lowest (€410,000).

The highest median prices outside of Dublin were in Wicklow (€430,000) and Kildare (€390,000), while the lowest price was €161,000 in Longford.

The latest CSO figures indicate 4,255 house purchases were filed with Revenue in November, worth a total €1.8 billion.

This represents a 5.8 per cent decrease compared with the same month of 2022 but a marginal increase compared with October.

“House prices rose at a faster pace than expected in 2023 despite the higher interest rate environment. Supply shortages continue to be key to this trend,” Goodbody economy Dermot O’Leary said.

“Pricing momentum has been building over recent months, with the annualised price growth in the three months to November 2023 running at 12 per cent. Almost all regions are participating in this momentum. While the Dublin market underperformed for much of 2023, the regional dispersion in price growth is now limited,” he said.

Ian Lawlor, managing director of the Lotus Investment Group, said the latest numbers was further proof that the Irish housing market has regained momentum in recent months.

“Predictions by a number of estate agents suggest that house prices will continue their upward climb, particularly in areas outside of Dublin. This growth is fuelled by demographic trends, the potential for falling interest rates, and a strong economic backdrop,” he said.

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Eoin Burke-Kennedy

Eoin Burke-Kennedy

Eoin Burke-Kennedy is Economics Correspondent of The Irish Times