The forthcoming US election, interest rate cuts and potential tax hikes in Britain are all being closely monitored as factors affecting the health of Ireland’s tourist industry in the immediate future, as new research points to an underwhelming summer.
Fáilte Ireland’s September update shows declines across all tourist markets over the season, with bad weather weighing more heavily than usual on industry minds.
“Significant concerns” have formed around profitability, with declining visitor volumes and rising costs presenting challenges.
As well as reflecting on a flat summer, the analysis considers how foreign developments might shape things to come, particularly given a growing reliance on US and long haul visitors. Fáilte Ireland has cited November’s US presidential election as creating potential uncertainty.
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“It’s do to with the economic outlook really,” said Caeman Wall, the organisation’s head of economic and industry analysis. “When uncertainty is about, people don’t invest, growth then shrinks and the economy follows sooner or later. That’s the kind of reason you’d be worried about it.”
The likelihood of increasing taxes in the UK, another important tourist market, is also seen as something that could affect consumer sentiment and spending.
Over half of operators (53 per cent) reported a fall in summer volumes compared to 2023, while an even greater proportion (64 per cent) saw profitability drop.
Data from May showed Dublin had not been experiencing the same business slowdown as elsewhere in the State but by the summer, the capital was also struggling to match the visitor levels of last year.
“Overall, the season this year has been less positive than we were all hoping for,” said Fáilte Ireland chief executive Paul Kelly.
Many operators said domestic customers had not stayed in Ireland as long as in 2023, while overseas visitors have also failed to arrive in as large a volume.
The poor summer weather has played its part, and is becoming of greater significance in terms of outlook – 82 per cent of the caravan and camping sector registered concerns, against 51 per cent in the industry generally.
“People can sometimes check out of bookings when they see the weather is disimproving; particularly given how easy it is to cancel now if you have booked through the likes of booking.com,” said Mr Wall.
“During Covid, all the operators made it easy to cancel and that was not unwound as things went back to normal. The ease of cancellation remained a thing and that’s kind of going for and against businesses.”
Some sectors saw relative improvements. Business was up for 43 per cent of inbound tour operators, against 40 per cent who were down. Self catering saw improvements among 36 per cent of operators, compared to declines in 25 per cent. However, food and drink businesses, hotels and activity providers “struggled”.
The 2024 experience, compared to last year, is expected to continue for the remaining months with rising costs dominating concerns across the board.
There were some improvements in bed capacity, with Fáilte Ireland seeing about a 3 per cent increase in registered accommodation. In signs of a reverse on previous trends, the number of beds given over to international protection applicants and Ukrainian refugees was 10 per cent in May, down from 12 per cent the previous November.
“The average length of stay by visitors has declined, meaning the season has been flat,” said Mr Kelly of the summer tourist season.
“Festivals and events like the recent Aer Lingus College Football Classic, which saw over 27,000 international visitors coming to Ireland, have provided a very welcome boost to revenue. However, many businesses in the tourism industry continues to face significant profitability challenges due to rising operational costs.”
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