Business

Housing output set to miss Government predictions as completions fall

21,634 dwellings completed in the first three quarters of the year, down over 3% on same period last year

Total completions are likely to fall far short of the 40,000 predicted by Taoiseach Simon Harris and Minister for Housing Darragh O’Brien (pictured) in recent weeks. Photograph: Collins
Total completions are likely to fall far short of the 40,000 predicted by Taoiseach Simon Harris and Minister for Housing Darragh O’Brien (pictured) in recent weeks. Photograph: Collins
Ian Curran
Thu Oct 24 2024 - 15:52

Housing output is on pace to fall short of the Government’s 40,000 unit prediction this year with the total number of units completed in the first quarter of 2024 down 3 per cent on the same period in 2023.

New figures from the Central Statistics Office (CSO) published on Thursday revealed that a total of 8,939 new dwellings – including apartments, scheme houses and single houses – were connected to the national electricity grid in the three months to the end of September.

That represented a 6.3 per cent increase on the same three-month period last year. On a rolling basis, however, it means that 21,634 units in total have been completed in the first three quarters of the year, down by more than 3 per cent on the first nine months of 2023.

A surge in completions in the final months of 2023 meant a total of 32,695 new dwellings were completed last year, while a similar seasonal effect is expected this year.

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However, the total is likely to fall far short of the 40,000 predicted by Taoiseach Simon Harris and Minister for Housing Darragh O’Brien in recent weeks.

On Thursday, researchers from Davy Stockbrokers said the level of output all but rules out the Coalition’s “hoped-for output of 40,000 this year”. Output is now expected to fall short of the firm’s 36,000 estimate for 2024, said Davy economist Kevin Timoney and Diarmaid Sheridan in a research note, after a weak start to 2024.

The firm expects activity to pick up in 2025, due to an increase in new housing commencements this year.

Speaking in the Dáil on Thursday Sinn Féin finance spokesman Pearse Doherty said the Coalition will miss its targets “by a country mile”.

Mr Doherty said “the sheer incompetence” of the Government is “off the charts” as he accused Mr O’Brien of “lying” about the figures. He amended his comment to “deliberately misleading the Dáil” when Ceann Comhairle Seán Ó Fearghaíl demanded he withdraw the accusation.

Mr O’Brien said it was galling to hear Sinn Féin accuse anyone of lying, given what the party had been through in the last several weeks.

In its housing strategy, published in September, Sinn Féin said it would allocate €37 billion for the development of new build homes, with €2 billion for acquisitions, and about €7.8 billion for social and affordable homes annually. The party said it would build 300,000 new homes in the first five years of a Sinn Féin-led government, 175,000 of which would be delivered by the private sector.

Earlier this year, the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) said that as many as 53,000 new homes per year might be required to meet housing demand in certain scenarios, taking into account different assumptions around fertility, mortality and inward migration.

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Ian Curran

Ian Curran

Ian Curran is a Business reporter with The Irish Times

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