Dublin Airport could handle about 35 million passengers next year following this week’s court ruling, meaning the hub would exceed a controversial cap on numbers there for the second time.
The High Court blocked regulators from limiting the number of passengers that airlines at Dublin can fly next summer pending the outcome of lawsuits challenging the move, which is tied to a 32 million passenger cap imposed by planners on the airport.
Kenny Jacobs, chief executive of State company DAA, which runs Dublin Airport, predicted that about 35 million people could pass through it in 2025 as a result.
DAA figures show that the airport is poised to breach the 32 million limit this year. Mr Jacobs said the company now expected modest growth in 2025.
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Airlines faced the loss of about 1 million seats from summer 2024 had the court decided that air travel regulator the Irish Aviation Authority (IAA) could apply the limit.
That would have forced them to cut flights, driving up air fares and enduring tens of millions of euro each in revenue losses, while they and the airport would have had to axe jobs.
Carriers, including the airport’s biggest customers, Aer Lingus and Ryanair, will this month apply for take-off and landing slots at Dublin Airport for the period from late next March to October, air travel’s peak summer period.
Mr Jacobs noted that he based his forecast for passengers next year on the slots that he expected the airlines to request for that period.
“We have done a lot to dampen demand,” he said, adding that this included ending financial incentives meant to encourage airlines to expand, and discouraging new carriers.
Under EU law, the IAA regulates allocation of slots and sets the terms under which they are allocated to airlines. An independent contractor, Airport Coordination Ltd, manages the allocations, applying the regulator’s conditions.
Mr Justice Barry O’Donnell’s decision this week means the IAA cannot include the proposed summer passenger limit in the parameters it sets for slot allocation, at least until the wider legal action is dealt with.
The authority decided on the limit following a request from the DAA that it take the 32 million a year planning cap into account. The IAA points out that it has no role in planning compliance.
DAA said on Tuesday that almost 29 million people had travelled through Dublin Airport so far this year, leaving it likely to pass 32 million in December.
[ What next for the Dublin Airport passenger cap?Opens in new window ]
The company last year sought permission for 40 million passengers from local planning authority Fingal County Council, which then requested further information.
DAA will respond to that request next week, according to Mr Jacobs. The council will have eight weeks to decide on the application, but the airport company expects any decision to face appeals.
The company asked to have the cap lifted in a broader application seeking permission to extend the airport’s facilities. It plans to file a separate standalone request to have the limit increased to 36 million while the council considers the first one.
“We could comfortably manage 36 million without building anything,” Mr Jacobs explained.
However, that depends on a separate process regulating noise at the airport that involves An Bord Pleanála, which is still ongoing.
The High Court will hear the airlines’ challenge to the IAA’s summer limit, and an earlier decision setting a winter maximum of 14.4 million, on December 3rd. Both are tied to the overall passenger cap.
The carriers want several issues referred to the European courts as they say the cap breaches EU law and an air travel treaty with the US.
Separately, the Government confirmed that it had extended Emerald Airlines’ contract to operate public service flights between Donegal and Dublin airports for a year to February 2026.
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