The early train from Dublin Connolly to Belfast Grand Central was a busy one last Monday morning.
Bleary-eyed commuters heading north were joined by scores of American tourists fresh from the NFL clash in Croke Park the day before.
Still wearing their allegiances on their chest, fans of the Pittsburgh Steelers and Minnesota Vikings boarded the now hourly Enterprise Service. Many of them scanned over leaflets recommending visits to Titanic Belfast, the Giant’s Causeway and the Game of Thrones studio tour.
The NFL games, like the College Football classic in August, brought thousands of US visitors to the capital, says Eoghan O’Mara Walsh of the Irish Tourism Industry Confederation (ITIC).
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“The college football game brought a big dividend to Irish tourism – and not just to Dublin. Those visitors tend to stay for seven days and tour the regions,” he says.
“Americans spend about three times what the British do and the North American market is doing very well right now”.
O’Mara Walsh’s outlook is broadly upbeat in what he describes as a “challenging year”.
The tourism industry contends that the official visitor numbers from earlier in the year did not reflect the reality on the ground. While the Central Statistics Office (CSO) seemed to point to a big drop – industry voices were insistent that things were not nearly as bad as the official figures suggested.
Nonetheless, the overall Irish tourism situation is “flat at best”.
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The latest figures published this week showed 772,800 visitors came here in August – an increase of one per cent on August 2024 – and a five per cent increase on the same month in 2023.
O’Mara Walsh says the divergence between the numbers collected by the CSO and those gathered by his organisation’s members seems to be coming to an end.
“The divergence is less as each month goes by,” he says.
“The misalignment was quite high in the first quarter of the year – it didn’t in any way reflect the industry experience.
“The CSO employed a new measure last year – and we feel their Q1 in 2024 was over-inflated. So therefore, when they compare to an over-inflated period last year it looks like a decline happened this year.
“It is righting itself.”
The CSO seems to agree that everyone is now seeing similar figures.
“The overall results were presenting maybe a different picture earlier in the year – but that gap has narrowed considerably,” says Sam Scriven, head of tourism statistics at the CSO. “Overall, the industry is saying the same as us for the summer months.”
While visitor numbers from Britain and Europe have dropped significantly in 2025, North Americans essentially saved the summer.
“Visitor numbers from the USA and Canada were up 21 per cent compared to August 2024 – a trend we have seen over the past couple of months,” says Scriven.
May, June and July all saw a big bounce in those coming from the States when compared to the same months last year.
The industry is clinging to the hope that, even in the absence of the big American football events, the US visitors will continue to arrive here.
The British, French and German economies are all struggling – and visitors from the Continent are cutting back on their traditional second annual holiday along with city breaks.
The infrastructure to bring North Americans here appears to be in place for 2026. Aer Lingus owner IAG has made Dublin something of a hub airport between Europe and the US – and there are plenty of options for them to come here if they can continue to afford it.
Much depends on the impact of Donald Trump’s economic policies and the strength of the dollar.
The greenback has fallen 13 per cent against the Euro since the start of the year.
“I think we are on the cusp of really needing to watch that,” says Elaina Fitzgerald Kane who runs Fitzgerald’s Woodlands House Hotel & Spa in Adare, Co Limerick.
“You have to remember that the States is an expensive economy to live in and holiday in – and that has meant we have remained competitive. But I think they (American visitors) are at the point where they are observing the value of the dollar and beginning to notice the difference – I think that is going to come into play.”
The Ryder Cup will be held in the Limerick town in 2027 – something Fitzgerald Kane says may help speed up efforts to complete the Adare bypass – and the hope is that the US market will remain a strong one in the meantime.
However, she is concerned about potential over-exposure to the US.
“The French, Italian, Spanish and Dutch have been very few and far between this year. The Irish domestic market is holding, but I feel it is on shaky ground. I’d be worried about where we are.
“Visitors from Europe and the UK are under big pressure – and they want value for money. Our VAT rate is near the higher end of rates in Europe.”
Beyond calling for a cut to VAT, she argues that more needs to be done around reducing the cost of insurance for SMEs and cutting red tape.
“There is a lot of red tape around small building projects – when you look at the percentage that has gone towards it you are shaking your head and wondering where the incentive is to build and to grow.”
The end of the year is looking good for the hotel. Much of this, she says, is down to events it has planned – such as a pumpkin patch for Halloween and a music and comedy festival in November.
In the capital, there is also a cautious optimism about the end of the year. Again, based on strong numbers coming from the US.
Miriam Brady is commercial executive of Dublin Bus Tours and looks after the hop-on, hop-off DoDublin buses. She says it is not only Ireland that needs to be thankful that the Americans are still travelling.
“They didn’t just save the summer here. I did a good bit of travelling myself this year – and they seem to have been everywhere,” she says.
“Unfortunately the UK market has been dropping since Covid. We would have relied on the city breakers from Britain during the shoulder periods (off-peak seasons).
“From a Dublin perspective, we would have been their second or third foreign trip. After the Costa del Sol in the summer, they might have gone to Dublin for a city break – or had an unplanned trip – from a Ryanair sale or something like that.
“But really, since Brexit, they have been looking for value. The ones who are still coming – are coming just for one day. It’s not good value for them any more and they wouldn’t spend the way the Americans would.”
Brady says DoDublin has worked hard to add value to its tours. Free admittance to the Little Museum of Dublin and two-for-one meal deals have been introduced to lure more passengers on board.
However, given their limited time and limited budgets, the day tripper from Britain is unlikely to take such a tour, she says, and there is little that can be done to change this.
Another small, but important, part of the overall tourism package here is the visitor attraction industry.
EPIC, the Irish Emigration Museum in Dublin’s Custom House Quay has been a big draw for Americans over recent years.
Its CEO and director Aileesh Carew acknowledges the importance of US visitors – many of whom spend a serious amount of time tracing their roots and histories. However, she is aware that other markets will need to be tapped.
“We shouldn’t have all our eggs in one basket,” she says. “We have been pleased to hear the Minister (Peter Burke) saying he would like to see more diversification from Tourism Ireland.”
Like the Adare hotelier, EPIC is investing in itself to ensure it “stays ahead of the game”.
“Fortunately, we have the finance available at the moment – which means we have a significant investment starting on Monday. We will be expanding and completely renovating about a quarter of the museum – to continue to stay relevant,” she says.
However, like all of those above, Carew argues the Government should be doing more to help the industry navigate a potentially choppy international environment.
“I would be hopeful in the final run-up to the budget the Minister will consider giving the 9 per cent VAT rate to the visitor attraction market. It is a very important part of the overall experience when people come to Ireland – particularly when the weather is bad.
“When people aren’t able to climb our beautiful mountains, they can still come here.”
Carew welcomes the news that the passenger cap at Dublin Airport is to be lifted She says it is “really positive” given that winter breaks are crucial to the museum’s bottom line.
In the rear-view mirror, 2025 shaped up better than it initially appeared it might, she adds.
“When the threat of the tariffs started – and the stock market took a dive – we were all concerned. We were very worried for the year. Flat seems to be a good outcome for us all.”
With Donald Trump’s policies driving down the dollar and routinely upending economic forecasts, however, 2026 could be the year of living dangerously.
The nervousness about a possible over-reliance on America is evident among almost all tourism stakeholders.
Many of them gathered at an ITIC conference in Kilkenny during the week – where they heard numerous speakers emphasise the need to not only hold on to the US market for dear life – but also to diversify in the event that the economics stop making sense.
However, the outlook for the other markets is not great.
[ Why is Ireland’s hospitality industry feeling taken for granted?Opens in new window ]
The British economy is struggling to generate any momentum – and official estimates for growth are likely to be downgraded soon. Such a move will add to the need for tax hikes there – and will reduce disposable incomes.
Germany is in a well documented economic trough with unemployment on the rise – though there are signs that there could be a return to modest growth over the next two years.
And the French economy is in serious trouble – with commentators suggesting it is now the “sick man” of Europe.
The uncertainty in these markets comes at a time when prices at home are rising.
“We haven’t increased our price in two years – from a cost perspective we have managed timings, how we do our high peak and low peak,” says Brady, of DoDublin tours.
“But we will have to put up prices in the next year – something we don’t want to do – but have to.”
