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Wind auction may tell us if John Collison is right about our inability to get things done

Any increase over the average guaranteed price paid in 2023 can be seen as some sort of ‘Irish difficulty premium’

Stripe president John Collison caused a stir with an opinion piece in The Irish Times assailing Ireland's inability to build big infrastructure projects
Stripe president John Collison caused a stir with an opinion piece in The Irish Times assailing Ireland's inability to build big infrastructure projects

Last Friday, an 8,500-word take down of John Collison‘s recent Irish Times opinion piece bemoaning the inability of the State to get things done was published on the UCD Environmental Law and Justice Group blog.

The author – assistant professor in planning and environmental law at UCD Andrew Jackson – was clearly in no mood to grant Collison any poetic licence and contradicted numerous examples given by Collison of how Ireland is in effect getting in its own way.

John Collison of Stripe: Ireland is going backwards. Here’s how to get it movingOpens in new window ]

He starts with figures showing how the Department of Housing has not in fact “decided to intentionally depopulate the east of the country” and ends with a rebuttal of the assertion that “uniquely in developed countries, our system makes it easy for [Nimbys] by giving anyone legal standing to object to development”.

The fundamental point that Jackson seems to be making is that the various actions taken by State agencies or State-adjacent entities that Collison derides have a firm basis in Irish law, European law and Government policy. Many of them reflect the undeniable reality of climate change. As such, Jackson argues they reflect the values of contemporary Ireland as much if not more than the abundance agenda promoted by Collision and the think tank he funds, Progress Ireland.

A relatively recent concept, abundance argues that less regulation and more technology will produce better returns for everybody than the current regulatory-heavy paradigm in which the State plays a big role.

The depressing thing is that Collision and Jackson are both right and also wrong. The State has an important role in regulation, but enforcing regulations cannot be an end in itself. Equally depressing is that a much needed debate about this dilemma risks turning into some sort of US-style ideological battle.

Micheál Martin bemoans planning issues to Stripe’s John CollisonOpens in new window ]

Both Collison and Jackson have adopted equally scornful and dismissive tones. It’s a style very in keeping with what passes for public discourse on social media. The point that both seem to have missed is that if they really want to bring about change or defend something of value they must bring the other sides with them. Memes and zingers are not enough.

The approach does not bode well for the prospect of either man helping square what is a very important circle: how to speed up the delivery of strategically important projects without losing sight of the wider issue such as democratic accountability and environmental protection.

The issue will come into focus next month when the Government holds its second offshore wind energy auction. The winner of the Tonn Nua auction will get government support to build a 900MW wind farm off the south coast in the form of a guaranteed long-term price for the electricity generated by the project.

The bidders put forward the guaranteed price they want and the lowest priced bid wins – provided it meets the other criteria. The price of the winning bid compared to the winning prices in previous auctions can be seen as a reflection on the global wind energy industry’s view of Ireland as a place to do business and get things done.

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Of the four winners of the first offshore wind auction held in June 2023, one has abandoned its project and the other three are still embroiled in the planning process. In April, Corio Generation withdrew from a project to build a farm off the Sceirdre Rocks in Connemara that would have powered 350,000 homes. The reason was not disclosed, but sources cited engineering challenges.

The other three projects are still in the planning process. The North Dublin Array – backed by Norway’s Statkraft – had planned to begin generation in 2030 based on a 12-month planning process. It is now 16 months into the process and does not expect to get planning until 2027 as the additional information requested will require years of further surveys and millions of euro of further investment, according to the company

Dublin Array

German energy giant RWE and Irish company Saorgus plan to build a wind farm on the Kish and Bray Banks to power 770,000 homes – known as Dublin Array. They submitted their planning application in February. It is also targeting 2030 for completion.

The final project – the Codling Wind park backed by France’s EDF which could power a million homes – submitted its application in September 2024. An Coimisiún Pleanála has sought further information and it is also unlikely to meet its planning target.

Frustrated though they may be, it is unlikely that the backers of these projects did not anticipate a lengthy planning process and factor it into their bids. What will be interesting is whether the bidders in the Tonn Nua auction seek some sort of premium to reflect the difficulty of getting things done here.

Assuming there are bidders and one of them is successful, the Jackson camp – for want of a better word – can argue that, for all its flaws, our democratically accountable approach is functional.

But the Collison camp will be able to argue that any increase over the average guaranteed price paid in 2023 represents some sort of “Irish difficulty premium” as global wind energy prices have remained relatively stable over the intervening years.

The truth – as ever – lies somewhere in the middle. We must do things better and more efficiently, but do not need to throw the democratic baby out with the bath water. Hyperbole and sarcasm don’t really help.