Backlogs of up to 11 years in the delivery of new aircraft could hinder airlines’ growth in 2026, even as demand for air travel grows, according to Irish leasing company Avolon.
The Dublin-based group, one of the world’s top three aircraft leasing businesses, has predicted that low fuel prices and economic growth will push global airline profits to $41 billion (€35 billion) this year.
But the company says that carriers could “miss” growth opportunities as deliveries of new passenger jets from manufacturers including Airbus and Boeing lag orders.
“Order backlogs at Airbus and Boeing now extend to over 11 years based on 2025 production rates,” says Avolon’s Outlook 2026 Upnext, a yearly analysis of the state of air travel and aircraft leasing.
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The report comes days after Irish carrier Ryanair suggested that European holidaymakers could face airfare hikes of 3 to 4 per cent this year as a shortage of jets squeezes capacity in the region.
The backlog has prompted Boeing and Airbus, the world’s biggest manufacturers of commercial aircraft, to boost production, Avolon added.
US giant Boeing last year boosted deliveries of new planes by 75 per cent. Delivery growth at its European rival Airbus was 3.5 per cent, the report said.
Many airlines are flying older aircraft that burn more fuel as a consequence, but cheaper oil prices are offsetting some of the extra expense, Avolon maintained.
Low-cost carriers, led by Ryanair, which is taking on 29 new Boeing jets this year, are leading growth in Europe, according to the company.
Its report noted that consolidation continues in the region. Air France-KLM is trebling its stake in Scandinavian carrier SAS to 60.5 per cent, while German group Lufthansa intends to increase its holding in Italy’s ITA to 90 per cent from 41 per cent.
Avolon expects manufacturers to deliver $120 billion worth of new aircraft this year, 20 per cent more than in 2025.
Lessors, including Avolon, and its Irish-based rivals Aercap and SMBC Aviation Capital, will finance about half of this, the report predicted.
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Companies such as Avolon buy aircraft from Airbus and Boeing, using their own cash and debt raised from capital markets.
They then lease the jets to airlines, using the rent to pay off the loans. The State is a leading centre for the global aircraft leasing industry, and is home to the top three players.
Dublin will host a leading industry conference, Airline Economics, next week.
Jim Morrison, chief risk officer at Avolon, noted that India, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia were emerging as the next key growth regions.
“Airline financial performance continues to strengthen, with the industry expected to record its fourth consecutive year of profitability,” he said.
