One of former taoiseach Bertie Ahern’s most infamous remarks came in Bundoran, Co Donegal, in July 2007 when he criticised the economic naysayers of the day for “sitting on the sidelines or on the fence cribbing and moaning”.
The economy was motoring at the time, and Ahern pointed out during his speech to the Irish Congress of Trade Unions (ICTU) that unemployment was at 4.2 per cent, while gross domestic product had grown by 5.3 per cent the year before.
Of course, we all know only too well what happened next.
Since then, there has been a collective clamour for vigilance, lest we lose the run of ourselves again. With the pain of five years of austerity still coursing through the veins of the nation, any talk of “a bubble” or an “overheating economy” makes ears prick up.
Last week, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development said there were signs of “overheating” in the Irish economy, echoing a similar warning it made a year before Ahern’s speech to ICTU and just over two years before the Bank Guarantee.
This week, the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council, which is the Government's budgetary watchdog, said that talk of overheating, which is when the economy is expanding at an unsustainable rate, "isn't misplaced", but that it "isn't happening at the moment".
Inflation
One of the factors to watch closely when it comes to monitoring the heat of the economy is inflation. Figures in this week’s Consumer Price Index showed it remains weak, as prices nationally rose by just 0.4 per cent in the year to May.
However, this represents an acceleration on April when annual price growth was recorded at -0.1 per cent, and most likely reflects the impact of stronger oil prices.
Investec’s report on the services sector for May showed the growth of business activity accelerated at the fastest rate since January, which was the 70th consecutive month of growth. Last week’s report for the manufacturing sector showed activity at a three-month high.
There were also unemployment figures for May this week, which showed the rate of joblessness fell to a post-crash low of 5.8 per cent as conditions in the labour market tighten and the economy heads towards full employment.
That’s before we get to the 1,000 jobs that were announced this week by bus company Go-Ahead Ireland; UK investment group Smith & Williamson; outsourcing company Abtran; financial services company DMS Governance; and Sigmar Recruitment.
Recruitment site Indeed, meanwhile, said Brexit was the driver behind a 15 per cent increase in financial services jobs advertised in the Republic in the first quarter of the year.
*****
It was construction and property that fuelled the last bubble to take the economy down, and despite surviving that, building company Sammon was forced into liquidation this week with the loss of 200 jobs.
The death knell for the builder came due to uncertainty over whether it could win a vital contract to complete a €100 million schools construction project that stalled in January following the £7 billion collapse of UK giant Carillion, one of the partners in the project.
All the while, you can’t move for cranes. Some 6,180 student bed spaces are under construction in Dublin, with over a third of those due to be delivered this year, research from commercial property firm Cushman & Wakefield shows.
Developer Marlet Property Group meanwhile ended talks on the sale of 1,205 apartments in Dublin for a reported €450 million. It couldn’t reach agreement with real estate investor Round Hill in relation to the sale and funding of the apartments.
Elsewhere, Yew Grove, a new Irish real-estate investment trust, raised €75 million in an IPO, three-quarters of what it set out to achieve. It plans to build a commercial property portfolio of €300-€500 million over the next few years. It will also seek to raise more equity.
*****
Packaging giant Smurfit Kappa has been grappling with an unwanted takeover approach in recent weeks, and it finally all came to a head.
Its US rival International Paper (IP) confirmed before a 7am deadline on Wednesday that it would not make a former offer for the Irish company, "given the lack of engagement by Smurfit Kappa's board of directors and management".
Shares in the cardboard box-making firm, led by chief executive Tony Smurfit, fell more than 9 per cent over five days before IP confirmed it would not proceed with a binding offer.
The Irish Takeover Panel hit IP with a 12-month ban on making another approach for the company.
Afterwards, Smurfit pledged to redouble efforts to clarify its strategy and boost its market value, as it began its bid to woo major investors.
*****
It was one of the longest-running criminal trials in the history of the State, and, given how some recent attempts to garner convictions for white-collar crime have gone, there will have been some concern that this too would founder.
However, former Anglo Irish Bank chief executive David Drumm on Wednesday became the most senior banker at the defunct lender to be convicted over transactions conducted during the 2008 financial crisis.
Drumm (51), of Skerries, Co Dublin, was convicted on two counts of deceiving depositors and investors into believing that Anglo was healthier than it actually was at the height of the crisis almost a decade ago.
A jury of nine men and three women took 10 hours and 32 minutes, deliberating over four days, to return unanimous verdicts at the Dublin Circuit Criminal Court. Drumm showed no emotion as the verdict was delivered.
