Ireland has set itself a demanding target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 by 50 per cent compared to 2018 levels. Following the Covid drop in activity and emissions, we are now back to business as usual. Emissions are rising rather than falling and we are going backwards.
Over the past two years the Government and the Oireachtas have put a lot of effort into developing the legislation on tackling climate change. To some extent, debating climate targets has distracted political attention from agreeing and implementing a programme of actions to achieve those targets. Laura Burke, EPA director general, has said that “there is a significant gap between the ambition in the climate Act, and the realisation of the necessary actions to deliver on that ambition”.
And there is more work to be done in the area of setting goals: the Government has also to set targets for each sector on emissions reductions.
UCC research, that underpins the carbon budgets, shows that to reach the targets we have set agricultural emissions will have to fall by a minimum of 33 per cent, a figure that would leave a 61 per cent reduction required in energy emissions. This research also indicated that such a combination would be exceptionally expensive, where reductions in energy emissions on this scale could cost about €2,000 per tonne of carbon for the final tranche. Our carbon tax is €41 a tonne, which shows the massive effort that meeting those targets would require. An alternative package that reduced both agricultural and energy emissions by 50 per cent would lower the cost of reducing the last tonne of carbon from the energy sector to about €500, still a very expensive undertaking. Realistically, if the national target is to be met there will need to be a large reduction in agricultural emissions, something that will be highly contentious.
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While the new law sets targets, it does not put in place the measures that will drive a reduction in emissions. Agreeing on overall targets is the easy bit, sectoral targets are proving more challenging and absorbing a lot of time and effort. But the hard work is translating that ambition into concrete actions that will deliver results. There has been progress on a couple of fronts, but a lot more to do.
The last budget did make progress with the promised increase in carbon tax taking effect, sending the economic signal to invest in and choose cleaner energy sources. It was politically difficult at a time of rising inflation and energy bills, but persevering with the policy showed the Government was serious about its commitments. Carbon taxation means that even when oil prices eventually fall back from their peak, cutting consumption of fossil fuels will still make sense. The current crisis is certainly reinforcing this message. However, the decision to temporarily cut fuel taxes was retrograde, if understandable. We will also probably burn more coal to generate electricity in the coming year due to gas shortages.
There has been progress on policies to support families to retrofit their homes. This is a complex undertaking for families, who need not only financial help, but also assistance in planning the work and arranging to have the work carried out. Some thought has gone into providing this help, with a one-stop-shop approach.
Apart from these two areas, there has been little progress over the past two years on the policy changes needed to deliver climate action to match our climate ambition. There has been a notable failure to tackle the regulatory obstacles to decarbonisation, particularly on forestry. We urgently need farmers to plant trees on a small percentage of their land to sequester carbon, but most have given up because of the regulatory challenges. The licensing system is not fit for purpose, it creates bureaucratic obstacles and delays to proposals to plant, manage or harvest trees. A simple regulatory regime would be easier and more effective.
Similarly, the length of time to get planning and permits for wind energy projects is slowing investment in this area and adding to its cost. With abundant sources of wind we are not yet tapping, we are emitting more carbon than we need to, particularly with coal-burning generation to fill the gap.
Reform of licensing and permit systems would be relatively costless. The pay-off would be faster reductions in carbon emissions, and greater carbon capture. Lots of other measures to achieve our climate goals will be expensive and difficult. Here is an easy win we should pursue straight away.
