Hospitality is suffering, so the industry keeps telling us. It can be difficult to get a real sense of how things are playing out.
The Fáilte Ireland Tourism Barometer, published earlier this year, showed the majority of businesses doing better last year than the year before. And more were optimistic about the outlook for 2024 than were pessimistic.
Yet, a report from the Restaurants Association of Ireland, published last month, estimated that two restaurants or other food-led businesses are closing each day, with about 70 shutting in February.
The report said that, so far this year, 212 restaurants, cafes and other food businesses had shut and estimated the economic cost of these closures at €288 million annually.
It can be true of course that experience will not be uniform across an industry, with potentially very different experiences in bigger cities compared to more isolated businesses. However, figures from the Central Bank say that, whatever the individual experience, spending in Irish restaurants and pubs is rising.
Its monthly card payment report says that spending on restaurants and dining was up 12 per cent last month. Breaking that down, spending on food was up 10.6 per cent, with spending on drink increasing by 17 per cent, while hotels saw a rise of close to 9 per cent.
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Looking at the more relevant year-on-year comparison, restaurants, where card spending would be the norm, have seen a 17 per cent rise in spending on credit and debit cards since March of last year.
The picture in bars and pubs is much the same: up 16 per cent, although the message of this figure might be skewed by the growing trend for contactless payments in pubs, traditionally a cash industry.
Only hotels have seen card spending fall over the 12-month period, down roughly 2 per cent.
Those figures are in the context of an overall increase in card payments of 11.6 per cent in the year to end-March, with the data showing significant growth in the use of mobile wallets (smartphones and watches) and contactless payments more generally, as well as a continuing, albeit reduced, affinity for cash, with €1.14 billion taken either from ATMs or via cashback.
Individual sets of data are never conclusive and it is certainly true that, for all sectors, costs are also rising. However, from the reports and data available, arguing convincingly that industry-wide supports are required appears to be a challenge. The Government may yet decide that a more nuanced approach is required.
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