The Irish Congress of Trade Unions (Ictu) has advised affiliates representing members in the private sector to lodge pay claims for between 4.7 per cent and 6 per cent “where sustainable” in 2026.
The move comes after a meeting of Ictu’s private sector committee on Monday afternoon.
In a document issued to affiliates explaining the basis for the figures, the congress said the Ictu-funded Nevin Economic Research institute expects economic growth to be maintained at about 3 per cent per annum in the three years to 2028, and productivity to increase by between 1 per cent and 1.5 per cent a year.
Many sectors of the economy, it suggests, continue to do well even as those more exposed to export markets face greater uncertainty.
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It says real wages generally declined during 2022 and 2023 but this ground was largely made up over the course of 2024 and 2025.
It says that based on inflation alone, wages will need to increase by about 2.5 per cent next year and 4.5 per cent over the next two years in order to avoid being eroded again.
In addition, however, it says the budget has left most workers facing the prospect of being worse off next year and that needs to be addressed. It suggests the strong economy and tight labour market presents an opportunity for unions to improve the position of their members in many sectors, although it acknowledges this will not be universally true.
“At a time of full employment and a strong economy, it is essential that workers seek to maintain and improve their living standards through collective bargaining,” said Ictu general secretary Owen Reidy.
“The pay guidance reflects this position, taking into account the current rate of inflation, gains in productivity, and the Government’s decision to drop tax indexation for workers.
“Despite the strong headline economic performance, families across the country continue to feel the stress of the high cost of living. With CEO pay in a range of big Irish companies reported to have increased by 30 per cent last year, we believe workers are entitled to seek pay increases that will allow them to keep pace with basic expenses.
“In Budget 2026, the Government abandoned tax indexation for workers, choosing instead to give a no-strings-attached €700 million handout to the hospitality industry. This left hundreds of thousands of workers worse off. Unions have no choice but to factor this into pay negotiations for next year.”
Mr Reidy said that in addition to the setting a recommended level of pay claim, Ictu was advising that member unions should prioritise low-paid workers by seeking to improve new entrant pay, protect existing working hours, seek to make use of measures such as the Small Benefit Exemption scheme and improve non-pay benefits such as annual and sick leave as well as pension provision.
