Ireland will face its first post-bailout review mission at the end of April, as the EU and IMF begin their formal post-programme monitoring of the economy. The European Commission is expected to outline its plans for Ireland's post-programme surveillance today in Brussels when it unveils its annual "in-depth review" of EU countries with macroeconomic imbalances.
The EU will confirm that, following the end of its EU-IMF bailout, Ireland is now subject to two review missions a year until 75 per cent of the State’s bailout loans are paid back – a period that could last for decades. The last ESM loan is scheduled to be repaid in 2042.
Despite earlier suggestions that the review could form part of the EU’s regular economic surveillance of member states’ economies, Ireland’s post-programme surveillance will be a separate procedure. A written report and analysis will be compiled after each review mission, which is then expected to be published and furnished to euro zone finance ministers.
Efforts
However, efforts will be made to ensure the review mission in Dublin will coincide with visits undertaken by EU officials as part of the new EU-wide economic governance rules. Peter Breurer, the IMF's resident representative in Dublin, said the IMF's post-programme monitoring will also take place twice a year and coincide with the EU's programme . "The two exercises are distinct from each other but it is more efficient to conduct them in parallel," Mr Breurer said yesterday.
Officials yesterday stressed the reviews will be very different to the quarterly troika visits, which demanded specific targets and policy changes. Instead, the focus will be on economic governance issues. Unlike the troika missions, stakeholders such as social partners are not expected to be consulted, though dialogue with the banks may take place, reflecting residual concern in Brussels and Frankfurt on the health of the Irish banking sector, particularly in relation to non-performing loans.
Criticism
The publication of the "in-depth" review in Brussels coincides with European Commission president Jose Manuel Barroso's visit to Cork today, where he will receive an honorary doctorate in law from University College Cork. Mr Barroso attracted criticism for his assertion at the EU summit in Brussels in December the euro had been a victim of the Irish banking crisis and not the other way around.
The former Portuguese prime minister, who is approaching the end of his second term as EC head, will use his speech tomorrow to praise Ireland’s resilience and courage in exiting the bailout, while also stressing the solidarity and financial support provided by the EU and member states.
“The European Commission has always been on the side of Ireland...even one of [Ireland’s] best friends,” he will say, emphasising that he himself personally made the case to other European leaders for lower interest rates and longer maturities on Ireland’s loans. He will also say that the “spirit” as well as letter of the agreement of June 2012 should be fully respected by euro area member states, pledging that the European Commission will “continue to stand by Ireland” now that it has exited the programme.
Sources in Dublin played down the impact of the post-programme surveillance, noting all EU countries are now subject to much greater surveillance from Brussels.
