Since 2008 and the onset of recession, almost a quarter of a million people have left Ireland with the numbers rising as the economy contracted, unemployment rose and living standards fell. The better news is that over the same period, 123,200 Irish living abroad have returned home. However, outward migration continues to remain high, with Central Statistics Office (CSO) figures showing that in the year to April last, 40,700 Irish nationals had emigrated. Nevertheless, that marks a drop of one fifth compared with the previous year.
The CSO figures illustrate how the pattern of migration has changed. Those who must leave regard emigration, hopefully, as a temporary necessity. Once it was seen as a one-way ticket to a place of permanent exile from which few emigrants were likely to return. But for many, as Minister for Finance Michael Noonan has recognised, emigration may well be a lifestyle choice. Without minimising the emotional impact on those who leave – or their families left behind – emigrants today have far more options than before in a mobile, globalised world, and clearly they are exercising them. Those who have moved to countries such as Canada or Australia to take up short-term job opportunities may later choose to stay on and opt to become permanent residents.
The rise and fall in emigration numbers has not moved in line with the sharp downturn in the economy and its more recent recovery. Despite tentative signs of an upturn, some 26 per cent fewer returned in the year to last April, than a year earlier. This year has seen greater evidence of economic growth, marked by a sustained fall in jobless numbers, with the unemployment rate last week down to 11.5 per cent – its lowest level since 2009. As economic recovery gathers pace, the increase in the numbers in full time employment should boost the confidence of those abroad about job prospects at home and encourage some to return.
Not surprisingly, as the CSO study shows, the young – 15-25-age group – have been the most severely affected by emigration. The past five years have seen a net loss of 80,700 young people, both Irish and foreign nationals. In a population of 4.6 million, this represents a significant number and a loss which may not be easily recovered.
For the first time the CSO, by collecting data on the educational skills of those entering and leaving the country, is helping to establish whether migration movements have resulted in a “brain drain” of talent. The latest (2013-14) figures show a net loss of 4,400 graduates, with more leaving than staying, but far fewer than the numbers in preceding years. Since 2009, some 40,100 with third-level qualifications have emigrated, a huge loss to the economy and to society, which only a sustained recovery in the years ahead can hope to reverse.
