Investors keeping watch for US rate cut

Investors will scrutinise minutes of the US Federal Reserve's September policy meeting this week for clues on whether the slowing…

Investors will scrutinise minutes of the US Federal Reserve's September policy meeting this week for clues on whether the slowing economy and easing price pressures might prompt an interest rate cut in coming months.

Speeches from euro-zone monetary policymakers will also attract attention, coming after the European Central Bank raised interest rates to 3.25 per cent last Thursday and cemented expectations for another hike in December.

The Bank of Japan is expected to announce a no-change rate decision on Friday, before raising borrowing costs in the first quarter of 2007 or later.

From the United States, this week also brings the September Beige Book - the Fed's snapshot of the health of the economy - and a speech by Richmond Fed president Jeffrey Lacker, a noted "hawk".

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Markets were volatile last week, with the Dow Jones Industrials Average hitting a fresh record high of 11,870 points on Thursday, and bond yields and the dollar surging after US employment figures were released on Friday.

The minutes and Lacker's speech are due on Wednesday. The Beige book is out on Thursday, and September US retail sales data and University of Michigan consumer confidence figures for October are due on Friday.

Last Friday's data showed US employers added just 51,000 jobs in September - the lowest since October 2005 - although traders reacted more to previous months' upward revisions.

ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet will attend a euro-zone finance ministers meeting in Luxembourg today and testify before the European Parliament's economic and monetary affairs committee tomorrow.

Monday

Results: YouGov.

Indicators: Euro-zone Sentix expectations (Oct); UK producer prices (Sep); German trade balance (Aug).

Others: European Central Bank president Jean-Claude Trichet attends Eurogroup meeting of euro-zone finance ministers; Japanese market holiday.

Tuesday

Results: Alcoa (Q3), Harvey Nash (H1), Premier Research (H1), Rugby Estates (H1), St Ives.

AGM: Active Capital Trust, CodaSciSys (egm), Consolidated Communication.

Meetings: The Taoiseach, Bertie Ahern, will open Ibec's human resources conference (Four Seasons Hotel, Ballsbridge, Dublin); budget perspectives conference (Hilton Hotel, Charlemont Place, Dublin); the Joint Oireachtas Committee on Communications, Marine and Natural Resources discusses the An Post-Fortis joint venture with the Irish Postmasters Union and Smart Telecom with ComReg;

Indicators: US consumer sentiment (Oct) and wholesale inventories (Aug); UK trade balance (Aug); French industrial production (Aug) and trade balance (Aug); Japanese machinery orders (Aug).

Others: Northern Foods and Vedanta Resources issue trading updates.

Wednesday

Results: Air Partner, Island Oil & Gas, James R Knowles Holdings, Monsanto, N Brown.

AGM: Ardana, Avingtrans, Utilico.

Meetings: The Oireachtas Joint Committee on Enterprise and Small Business discusses reform of the Irish insurance market with Allianz; Friends First and F&C host investment conference (Royal College of Physicians, Kildare Street, Dublin); Waterford County Council hosts "Invest in Waterford" seminar (Clonea Strand Hotel, Dungarvan, Co Waterford);

Indicators: Irish trade statistics (June); Japanese bank lending (Sep) and trade balance (Aug).

Others: Revenue publishes tax statistics for the period 1965-2005; Burberry, Carphone Warehouse and Sainsbury issue interim trading figures.

Thursday

Results: C&C (H1), Domino's (Q3), Moss Bros (H1), MSB International (H1), PepsiCo (Q3), WH Smith.

AGM: Abbeycrest, Prodesse Investment (egm), Waterford Wedgwood.

Meetings: Deloitte hosts motor insurance seminar (Morrison Hotel, Dublin); Dublin City Public Libraries and Dublin City Enterprise board present first in series of six talks on starting your own business (Central Library, Ilac Centre, Dublin);

Indicators: Irish consumer prices (Sep) and industrial production and turnover (Aug); US trade balance (Aug); German consumer prices (Sep); Japanese confidence index (Sep) and capital goods prices (Sep).

Others: Central Bank publishes fourth bulletin for 2006; ECB publishes monthly bulletin.

Friday

Results: Landround (H1).

AGM: Renishaw.

Meetings: Inspired IT Awards (Jury's Hotel, Ballsbridge, Dublin); Irish Auctioneers and Valuers hold annual president's lunch (Burlington Hotel, Dublin);

Indicators: Irish industrial stocks (Q2), capital assets in industry (Q2), retail sales (Aug) and external debt (June); US consumer confidence (Oct), retail sales (Sep) and business inventories (Aug); French consumer prices (Sep); Japanese industrial capacity (Aug).

Others: Bank of Japan announces interest rate decision.