Business Opinion:Our very own "Three Amigos" are riding off to Mexico to represent our interests at the world trade talks.
The Minister for Agriculture, Mr Walsh, and two junior ministers, Mr Michael Ahern and Mr Tom Kitt, are travelling to Cancun for the crucial mid-term discussions of the World Trade Organisation, which kick off formally on Wednesday.
There is no doubt which one of them will call the shots. It is no coincidence that the senior minister travelling represents agriculture, the key politically sensitive issue from an Irish viewpoint. Mr Ahern carries the trade brief and Mr Kitt is responsible for overseas development. But when the calls have to be made, it is Joe Walsh who carries the political clout of a full Cabinet seat.
The danger for the economy is that Ireland's wider economic interests will take second place, as the farm lobby pressures the Minister not to give an inch on agriculture.
Many other sectors of the economy - domestic business, multinationals, employees and consumers - will also be affected by the talks. But the only group which is organised and putting consistent pressure on the Government in relation to the WTO is the farmers.
They have every right to do so, of course. Reductions in EU supports have a big impact on agriculture and the sector wants to ensure that no concessions are agreed beyond what is contained in the recent CAP deal, particularly in regard to giving freer access to non-EU farm products to Irish markets. There will be no shortage of forecasts this week of how many million are at stake for Irish agriculture.
However what about the rest of the economy? Agriculture's economic importance has declined consistently over many years. Even since 1990, for example, agricultural exports have fallen from 20 per cent of total exports to around 8 per cent and employment has fallen from 15 per cent of total jobs to about 6.5 per cent. In terms of the overall economic contribution, agricultural output has fallen from 10.3 per cent of national output in 1990 to a little more than 3 per cent now.
The flip side of the argument is that other parts of the economy will also be affected by the WTO talks. A Forfás report earlier this year put it well. The successive world trade rounds have had a "subtle but profound effect on Irish industrial development over the past three decades", it said. The "subtle" means, of course, that no other sector jumps up and down as much about the talks as the farmers - the "profound" means that maybe they should.
As the Forfás report points out, the gradual liberalisation of world trade has been a key factor behind Ireland's economic transformation. Trade in manufactured goods and services has increased from 80 per cent of GDP in 1973 to over 180 per cent today. EU membership has been a key part of this, of course, but so has the process of trade liberalisation led by the GATT organisation and more recently the WTO. And in turn this has underpinned increases in national wealth.
Free trade both within Europe and beyond has been good for Ireland. It has been central to attracting multinational investment, offered new opportunities to domestic industry and benefited consumers.
The danger is that if this process does not keep moving forward, then it could actually reverse. On the table at the WTO talks are proposals to cut tariffs ( import taxes), eliminate other barriers to accessing markets, free up trade in services and protect international property rights.
At a macro level the importance to Ireland is obvious. The Cancun talks are midpoint negotiations in a round which is due to conclude at the end of next year. Failure this week would damage international economic confidence and - if it threatened to collapse the trade round - would imperil the growth in trade and investment which has underpinned Ireland's economic progress.
As a small open economy we have a vested interest in success. Last week's World Investment Report from UNCTAD, showed that Ireland was second only to Belgium/Luxembourg in terms of its reliance on transnational business. In turn the future expansion of multinational industry here - and of indigenous exporters - depends crucially on a continuation of the multilateral trade system.
At a sectoral level there is also much to gain. Lowering tariffs and - crucially - ending other barriers to trade such as customs red tape will boost exporters. As Forfás pointed out, our goal of developing Ireland as a centre for certain global service industries in areas such as digital content and professional services will be boosted if the WTO can apply its free trade rules in these areas. Enforcing rules on international property rights will help the research and development effort. And new rules on foreign direct investment - a contentious area in the talks - could help Irish companies to establish subsidiaries overseas.
Every country has its own particular interests, but central to the talks is the calculation that if the EU and US open their agricultural markets, developing countries will lower barriers to services and manufacturing trade.
There is no reason to suggest that Irish farmers should be "sold out" at the talks. What is essential, however, is that Ireland's wider economic interests inform our negotiating position. If this means a bit more has to be given on cutting agriculture supports in order to secure an overall deal, then it is clearly in our economic interest to support this.
