Retail sales growth slowed slightly in June, according to the latest provisional figures from the Central Statistics Office (CSO). But economists say that the latest volatile monthly sales figures pose no threat to continuing fast economic growth.
The volume of retail sales increased by 13.6 per cent in June compared with June 1999. This compared with a year on year rise in May of 17.8 per cent. While the volume index was down 1.2 per cent in June, the figures show that the fall was caused by weaker car sales in the month. When motor trade sales are stripped out the volume index was up 1.1 per cent in June.
On a value basis, the value of retail sales was up 18.3 per cent year on year to June. But in the month of June the value index was 0.6 per cent down on the May 2000 figure. Retail sales volume figures exclude the price effects on sales which are included in the value measure.
NCB chief economist Mr Dermot O'Brien said the latest figures indicate that the retail sales continued to grow at a strong pace. The figures show "some small cooling" but this was after very strong growth and the pace of growth is still well ahead of last years growth. When the impact of car sales is stripped out the underlying performance is still very strong and there are no signs of any slow down", he said.
While car sales slowed in June this followed very strong growth in the early months of the year and sales this year are well ahead of last year's levels. In the first seven months of the year car sales were up 41 per cent on the corresponding period of 1999. Some 197,000 new cars have been sold in the seven months to end July, according to figures from the Society of the Irish Motor Industry.
Dr O'Brien has estimated a volume increase in retail sales for the first six months of the year of 9.5 per cent excluding car sales. Economists said that stripping out car sales gives a better picture of the performance of retail sales Monthly sales figures are volatile and are often revised. In its latest statistical release the CSO has revised its May sales figures upwards to 17.8 per cent volume growth year on year and 22.2 per cent value growth. The latest sales figures come in the week Finance Minister Mr McCreevy revised his gross domestic product growth forecasts for the year sharply upwards from 7.5 per cent to 10.25 per cent.