A confidential Government paper warned that Ireland needed migration to sustain its workforce and public services even as calls for a crackdown on immigration grew.
The Department of the Taoiseach research said the State faced a “conundrum” of needing skilled labour even as it added to pressures on housing and infrastructure.
It said across Europe there had been “a change in the public discourse on migration” and that governments were struggling to deal with that. The paper said a “social licence” was essential and that without widespread acceptance “there are likely to be more calls for curtailing immigration even if the overall economic imperative is strong”.
The research said Ireland’s ageing population meant there would be fewer people of working age available to support them. By 2051, the number of workers per pensioner is expected to fall from 4.5 currently to 2.3.
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“In short, workers will increasingly be concentrated in lower income countries with high birth rates whereas economic opportunities are largely concentrated in high income countries,” it explained.
However, it said Ireland’s current system for immigration was fragmented, with employment permits, student visas, asylum applicants, family reunification and undocumented individuals.
The paper said: “The question arises whether these distinctive migration categories amount to a coherent whole or whether they produce, in overall terms, a less-than-optimal outcome.”
Figures cited in the research said that there were 2.2 million Irish people employed, around 80 per cent of the total workforce. There were a further 565,000 non-Irish citizens working, of whom 308,000 were from the EU or UK and who had no need of a visa.
It detailed how sectors of the Irish economy – especially healthcare and construction – were “heavily reliant” on non-Irish citizens.
Over three-quarters of new work permits issued were for people with third level education, it said, with healthcare, IT, science and engineering and social care being the top four categories. The most common countries of origin were India, the Philippines, and Brazil.
The research also detailed how more than 32,600 people were in the international protection accommodation system, with a further 2,500 on a waiting list.
“It should be noted that this cohort, despite their relatively small number in overall terms, tends to have a significant influence on the perception around migration and discussion in the media and public square,” it added.
In its conclusions, it said migration had allowed Ireland to fulfil multiple objectives but had also given rise to some “unanticipated outcomes”.
It said it was clear that a large “grey area” was in the area of educational visas, where people were coming to Ireland to study English. “It is an open question how many do so whilst abiding by the various conditions of the visa and how many continue to do so when their visa expires,” the paper said. “This raises obvious issues about transparency, possibility of exploitation and so on.”
It said that, at the moment, there were 22 separate migration categories in Ireland and that some modelling suggested up to 60,000 people were arriving each year, well above CSO projections.
“It serves to illustrate a possible scenario, namely [that] continuing to operate the current fragmented, bottom-up approach may not only lead to a higher number of migrants than could be catered for in an appropriate fashion, eg decent housing etc.. [It also may] not best serve Ireland in terms of mitigating our falling dependency ratio or meeting our social needs be it in terms of childcare workers or eldercare assistants.”
The research suggested Ireland needs a better overall framework for migration, better data and reforms to make the system more effective.
A better mechanism of return for people not entitled to be here was required, the paper said, as well as improved planning for housing and more work on integration.
“Integration will not be achieved without a significant level of social licence or acceptance,” it said.
