Ever since David Cameron promised a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, wishful thinking has been a tempting option for Ireland. At first, it seemed improbable that the Conservatives would govern alone after 2015, and so the Liberal Democrats would veto the vote.
When the referendum was called, polls pointed towards a Remain victory and even after Leave pulled ahead, there was comfort in the prospect that many of those who backed Brexit were traditionally non-voters. Even after the vote to leave, there was a chance that Cameron’s successor, Theresa May, would opt for a “soft Brexit”, remaining inside the single market and the customs union.
When that hope was extinguished in May’s Lancaster House speech last January, another emerged in the shape of a shared commitment by Britain and the EU to address Ireland’s concerns and avoid a return to “the borders of the past”. This commitment has not only survived but gained rhetorical strength and definition since then, cited in May’s letter triggering article 50 and in the EU’s negotiating guidelines for Brexit.
But, as Tony Connelly points out, the more closely the promise is scrutinised, the more apparent it becomes that it is an empty one.
“So, everyone is proclaiming no return to a hard Border. But everything about the reality, from the EU’s non-negotiable Union Customs Code, to Britain’s determination to do trade deals around the globe, to the phyto-sanitary requirements, all scream ‘hard Border’,” he writes.
Vivid images
As a correspondent in Brussels for RTÉ since 2001, Connelly has been explaining the EU to Ireland for longer than anyone before or since. Along with his unique experience and expertise, he brings to his TV and radio reports a gift for clarifying the complex without over-simplification but through vivid images and story-telling.
These same qualities are present in Brexit & Ireland, the first comprehensive account of the challenges Brexit poses for this island and the Government's response to it. The book will be required reading for policymakers in Dublin, London and Brussels and for anyone who cares about the consequences of Brexit for Ireland.
In a reversal of the historical stereotype, official Ireland prepared carefully and bureaucratically for the Brexit vote, while Whitehall and Westminster appeared to be making up their response to events as they went along. Connelly’s book opens with an account of contrasting referendum nights in Dublin and Brussels, with Britain’s diplomatic mission to the EU holding a boozy, all-night party while officials at Government Buildings were implementing a long-planned media and diplomatic plan.
A few weeks after the referendum, the Department of the Taoiseach received an email from the diary secretary to David Davis, the newly-appointed Brexit secretary.
“The secretary of state has told me he wants to meet Kenny. Please let us know if Kenny is available,” the email read.
The message spoke volumes, not only about shabby protocol on the British side, but about London’s expectation that Dublin would be an ally in negotiations with the rest of the EU. Enda Kenny said from the start that Ireland belonged among the EU 27 but it was a few months before the message achieved the necessary, brutal clarity.
Customs clearance
As Connelly reports, Irish officials started working with colleagues in Brussels to find solutions to the biggest issues, such as phyto-sanitary standards in agriculture and customs clearance at the Border. But Dublin halted this exercise after it became clear that Ireland was doing Britain’s work by finding ways to facilitate a development that was against Irish interests.
Among the most valuable chapters in Connelly’s book are deep-dive analyses of the Irish agri-food and fisheries industries, the EU customs union and the Common Travel Area. Another looks at the border between Norway, which is outside the EU and the customs union but inside the single market, and Sweden, which is inside all three.
Technology, cultural and linguistic affinity, membership of the Nordic Union, and decades of bilateral meetings have helped to make the border relatively seamless.
“But it is still a border crossing,” Connelly writes. “Every commercial driver must stop and provide customs documents. There are random spot checks.”
He quotes one Irish Commission official who admits that Ireland has been 'hiding behind the British skirts institutionally' for many years
A Revenue Commissioners report, initiated before the referendum and updated regularly ever since, concluded that an open Border would not be possible after Brexit. It outlined the cost in manpower and infrastructure needed to comply with Ireland’s obligations as a member of the EU customs union to police the union’s external frontier.
Britain’s commitment to leave the customs union has hardened in recent months, along with its opposition to any special status for Northern Ireland or moving the customs border to the Irish Sea. The last option is not only anathema to the DUP, on whose votes at Westminster the Conservative government depends, but would be costly for both parts of Ireland, which trade more with Britain than they do with one another.
Potential upsides
Beyond the gloom and anxiety, there are potential upsides to Brexit for Ireland, as jobs in financial services and other sectors move from Britain into the only remaining English-speaking country in the EU. Within the EU, as Connelly points out, Britain’s departure leaves Ireland without its closest political ally in Brussels. He quotes one Irish Commission official who admits that Ireland has been “hiding behind the British skirts institutionally” for many years.
The same official identifies Ireland’s greatest challenge after Brexit as finding and defining its new place in an EU which will itself be changed by Britain leaving.
“It’s like taking a huge part of your brain and putting it aside. What are the consequences 10 years down the line if this goes badly for Ireland?” the official says.
As Ireland navigates its way through Britain’s withdrawal and the new Europe taking shape, this fine book offers an indispensable guide to the hazards and the opportunities along the way.
Denis Staunton is The Irish Times’ London Editor
